Should you buy Pan American Silver (PAAS)?
Updated
Pan American Silver combines a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, 49% year-over-year revenue growth, and a PEG ratio of 0.08, making it one of the strongest fundamental profiles in the dataset, though sector concentration caps and a recent 7.4% gap-up create near-term entry timing risk.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.08 and forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x indicate the stock trades at a substantial discount to its growth rate, with analyst upside of 39% to the consensus price target of $61.55. Valuation breakdown | The stock price rises above $58 within 12 months as the valuation gap to growth closes. | →Stable |
| CounterPEG ratios below 0.1 in commodities companies frequently reflect cyclical peak earnings rather than durable undervaluation; if commodity prices normalize, the denominator shrinks and the PEG expands rapidly. | ||
A recent 7.4% gap up leaves an unfilled gap below the current price at approximately $47.50, creating a technical risk that the stock pulls back to fill the gap before resuming any uptrend. Technical breakdown | Price holds above $47.00 (the gap level) over the next 3 months without a full retracement to pre-gap levels. | →Stable |
| CounterNot all gap-ups fill; in strongly trending stocks with improving fundamentals, gaps can act as support levels and the pullback risk may be overstated relative to the upside momentum. | ||
Pan American Silver carries a wide economic moat score of 9.0 out of 10, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and compounder-quality characteristics combining strong returns with strong growth, placing it in the top tier of the universe on business quality. Quality breakdown | The quality score remains above 7.5 and the moat score holds at 8.0 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterMoat designations for precious metals miners are highly contested; silver prices are the primary driver of returns, and cost advantages can erode quickly if mine grades decline or input costs rise. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.08 and forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x indicate the stock trades at a substantial discount to its growth rate, with analyst upside of 39% to the consensus price target of $61.55.
→Stable- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $58 within 12 months as the valuation gap to growth closes.
CounterPEG ratios below 0.1 in commodities companies frequently reflect cyclical peak earnings rather than durable undervaluation; if commodity prices normalize, the denominator shrinks and the PEG expands rapidly.
A recent 7.4% gap up leaves an unfilled gap below the current price at approximately $47.50, creating a technical risk that the stock pulls back to fill the gap before resuming any uptrend.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price holds above $47.00 (the gap level) over the next 3 months without a full retracement to pre-gap levels.
CounterNot all gap-ups fill; in strongly trending stocks with improving fundamentals, gaps can act as support levels and the pullback risk may be overstated relative to the upside momentum.
Pan American Silver carries a wide economic moat score of 9.0 out of 10, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and compounder-quality characteristics combining strong returns with strong growth, placing it in the top tier of the universe on business quality.
→Stable- Expectation
- The quality score remains above 7.5 and the moat score holds at 8.0 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterMoat designations for precious metals miners are highly contested; silver prices are the primary driver of returns, and cost advantages can erode quickly if mine grades decline or input costs rise.
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Revenue grew 49% year-over-year, placing Pan American Silver as an industry growth leader, supported by earnings growth components also at the maximum score of 10.0 out of 10.
→Stable- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterStrong revenue growth in a precious metals miner is largely a function of silver and gold price movements rather than volume expansion; a commodity price reversal could cut revenue growth sharply with no operational offset.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Pan American Silver carries a wide economic moat score of 9.0 out of 10, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and compounder-quality characteristics combining strong returns with strong growth, placing it in the top tier of the universe on business quality.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any single reporting period.
- P2Revenue grew 49% year-over-year, placing Pan American Silver as an industry growth leader, supported by earnings growth components also at the maximum score of 10.0 out of 10.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3A PEG ratio of 0.08 and forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x indicate the stock trades at a substantial discount to its growth rate, with analyst upside of 39% to the consensus price target of $61.55.
Trip ifThe analyst consensus price target falls below $50, a decline of more than 18% from the current target of $61.55.
- P4A recent 7.4% gap up leaves an unfilled gap below the current price at approximately $47.50, creating a technical risk that the stock pulls back to fill the gap before resuming any uptrend.
Trip ifPrice drops below $44 (the gap fill level) and closes below that level for 3 or more consecutive days.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is STRONG_BUY_WAIT with medium conviction, score 6.5/10 at $44.88. The C-path quality+growth combination cleared its gates — quality 8.5 and growth 10.0 — with 2.90 asymmetric R:R supporting the read.
The engine's suggested entry zone is $45.71, currently in the entry zone. Target $61.55, stop $40.06, asymmetric R:R 6.05. The WAIT designation reflects entry-discipline framing — chasing into the current zone compresses asymmetry, which is why the engine separates WAIT from NOW. The engine's sizing output: 1.3% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (high-conviction tier).
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (3/4); High-quality business; Attractive valuation. On the bear side: Negative momentum. Active engine warnings: V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5.
BUY_NOW requires momentum at 1.3 vs threshold 4.5 to clear (1.3 → ≥4.5) OR price pulling back to the entry zone of $45.71 with asymmetry crossing 2.5. The verdict flips to HOLD if overall score deteriorates by ~0.7 from sentiment or technical drift.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates PAAS — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- ▸High-quality business
- ▸Attractive valuation
Bear case
- ▸Negative momentum