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OTLYOatly Group ABSell5.3·$14.89+1.09%
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Oatly Group AB (OTLY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.89: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.43; Below-average business quality.

Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, China, Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland, and Switzerland. Its oatmilk portfolio includes original, low-fat, full-fat, chocolate flavored,... Read more

$14.89+13.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#27 of 34 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.73%
Stop $13.85Target $16.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$19.50+31.0%5 analysts
$16.96our TP
$14.89price
$19.50mean
$13
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.89: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.43; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-7.2
Mkt Cap$465M
EV/EBITDA-71.9
Profit Mgn-13.8%
ROE-349.9%
Rev Growth15.2%
Beta1.85
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.43bearish
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$16+7.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -13.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
1.7
Gross Margin
2.6
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 7.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.5
Days To Cover
1.7
Beta
3.8
Max Pain Risk
5.0
Short Interest
7.4
Elevated put/call: 2.43High IV: 77%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.2
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
5.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
5.6
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.01Resistance $15.77

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.Upside+13.9%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTLY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.89: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.43; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Prior stop was $13.85. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.96 (+13.9% upside). Prior stop was $13.85. Stop-loss: $13.85.

What are the risks of investing in OTLY?

Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is OTLY overvalued or undervalued?

Oatly Group AB trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OTLY?

12 analysts cover OTLY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Oatly Group AB do?Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products in the United States, United...

Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, China, Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland, and Switzerland. Its oatmilk portfolio includes original, low-fat, full-fat, chocolate flavored, unsweetened, and Super Basic, which are offered in ambient and chilled packaging. The company offers Barista edition oatmilk; matcha; Oatgurts, which are oat-based yogurts; frozen desserts; cooking products, including regular and organic cooking cream, crème fraiche, whipping cream, vanilla custard, and spreads in a variety of flavors; and ready-to-go drinks. It sells its products through including foodservice, food retail, and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. Oatly Group AB was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

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