Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
ONON · Why this verdict
Why On Holding (ONON) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
On Holding's premium footwear brand demonstrates strong earnings momentum and wide-moat business quality, but near-term technical weakness from a confirmed downtrend warrants caution before adding new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company carries a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting strong brand positioning and financial health in the competitive footwear market. Quality breakdown | Return on equity and gross margin indicators remain at current levels or improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium footwear brands face intense competition from established players with deeper distribution networks, which could erode moat over time. | ||
On Holding beat earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 40%, 18%, and 60% in recent periods, indicating strong operational execution. Earnings | Continued earnings beats above analyst estimates for the next 2 quarters with positive surprises above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterA single large miss of -143% surprise last August shows earnings can be highly volatile and unpredictable. | ||
Analysts carry an average price target implying 36% upside from current levels, reflecting broad institutional conviction in the growth story. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst price targets rise above current consensus or analyst count covering the stock increases over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag price action; a stock trading below its 200-day moving average often precedes negative target revisions. | ||
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down at 3.6% over the past 30 days, constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks near-term entry. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation via rising on-balance volume suggests institutional buyers may be absorbing shares quietly despite the price weakness. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.75 combined with a forward price-to-earnings of 17.8x suggests the market is underpricing growth relative to earnings power. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates increase by at least 10% over the next 12 months as revenue growth continues above 20% annually. | →Stable |
| CounterPEG ratios are unreliable for high-growth brands where consensus estimates may overstate sustainable long-run growth rates. | ||
The company carries a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting strong brand positioning and financial health in the competitive footwear market.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and gross margin indicators remain at current levels or improve over the next 12 months.
CounterPremium footwear brands face intense competition from established players with deeper distribution networks, which could erode moat over time.
On Holding beat earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 40%, 18%, and 60% in recent periods, indicating strong operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued earnings beats above analyst estimates for the next 2 quarters with positive surprises above 10%.
CounterA single large miss of -143% surprise last August shows earnings can be highly volatile and unpredictable.
Analysts carry an average price target implying 36% upside from current levels, reflecting broad institutional conviction in the growth story.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise above current consensus or analyst count covering the stock increases over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag price action; a stock trading below its 200-day moving average often precedes negative target revisions.
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down at 3.6% over the past 30 days, constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks near-term entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 12 months.
CounterVolume accumulation via rising on-balance volume suggests institutional buyers may be absorbing shares quietly despite the price weakness.
A PEG ratio of 0.75 combined with a forward price-to-earnings of 17.8x suggests the market is underpricing growth relative to earnings power.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates increase by at least 10% over the next 12 months as revenue growth continues above 20% annually.
CounterPEG ratios are unreliable for high-growth brands where consensus estimates may overstate sustainable long-run growth rates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 6.5 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $5,824,100 (0.047% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.23
- ▸Above max pain $23
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.02
Upside
+25.3%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.10>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 1.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Sentiment at 7.4, and Quality at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Catalyst at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1On Holding beat earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 40%, 18%, and 60% in recent periods, indicating strong operational execution.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company carries a wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, reflecting strong brand positioning and financial health in the competitive footwear market.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any reported period.
- P3Analysts carry an average price target implying 36% upside from current levels, reflecting broad institutional conviction in the growth story.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $40 (below current price of $38.69).
- P4The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down at 3.6% over the past 30 days, constituting a confirmed downtrend that blocks near-term entry.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains below 0% for more than 60 days.
- P5A PEG ratio of 0.75 combined with a forward price-to-earnings of 17.8x suggests the market is underpricing growth relative to earnings power.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 25x due to earnings estimate cuts.