Olema Pharmaceuticals is a cash-burning clinical-stage biotech trading near its 52-week low with an RSI of 20, short interest of 17%, and a put/call ratio of 3.40, yet analysts maintain extremely bullish price targets implying over 300% upside, reflecting high binary risk around pipeline milestones.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Target Implausibility Flag→Stable
- Clinical Stage Cash Burn→Stable
- Extreme Short Interest Put Call→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 16, 2026· older than 90 days
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.54: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.33; Below-average business quality.
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. The company's lead product candidate is palazestrant, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.54: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Olema Pharmaceuticals To Present OP-3136 And Palazestrant Combination Data At San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, Decem — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Grants Stock Options to New Employees — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Olema Oncology Announces Participation in Upcoming Investor Conferences — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Olema Oncology Awarded State Grant for Workforce Training — fiscal.ai Oct 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS 12 Health Care Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHpipelinepalazestrant10-K Item 1A: 'We are substantially dependent on the success of our lead product candidate, palazestrant, which is currently in clinical development.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWThe Board appointed Dr. Prakash Raman as a Class II director effective April 28, 2026, following recommendation from the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. Routine board appointment, not an executive departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 6.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.54: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $7.01. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Resistance target: $8.05 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $7.01. Stop-loss: $7.01.
Concentration risk — Pipeline: palazestrant; DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $36.50 vs price $7.54 — ratio 4.8×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -2.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate OLMA, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $37.
What does Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and...
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. The company's lead product candidate is palazestrant, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER degrader, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of recurrent, locally advanced, or metastatic ER-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer; OPERA-01, the pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial of palazestrant as a monotherapy in second/third-line ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer; and palazestrant with CDK4/6 inhibitors, a phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase alpha (PI3Ka) inhibitor alpelisib, a mechanistic target of rapamycin inhibitor, and a CDK4 inhibitor that is in Phase 1b/2 clinical trial for the treatment of ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. It also develops OP-3136, an orally-available small molecule that potently and selectively inhibits KAT6 which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for patients with breast and other solid tumor cancers. The company was formerly known as CombiThera, Inc. and changed its name to Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in March 2009. Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.