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Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.49: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 14.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. The company's lead product candidate is palazestrant, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER... Read more

$14.49+158.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#98 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $13.56Target $37.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 14.7:1
Analyst target$43.00+196.8%11 analysts
$37.41our TP
$14.49price
$43.00mean
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.49: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 14.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-5.6
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA-4.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-36.6%
Rev Growth
Beta2.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$33+127.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.8
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+11.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 14.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.98Resistance $17.46

Price Targets

$14
$37
A.Upside+158.2%
A.R:R14.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLMA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.49: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 14.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $13.56. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLMA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.41 (+158.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.56. Stop-loss: $13.56.

What are the risks of investing in OLMA?

Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is OLMA overvalued or undervalued?

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OLMA?

19 analysts cover OLMA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and...

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. The company's lead product candidate is palazestrant, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER degrader, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of recurrent, locally advanced, or metastatic ER-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer; OPERA-01, the pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial of palazestrant as a monotherapy in second/third-line ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer; and palazestrant with CDK4/6 inhibitors, a phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase alpha (PI3Ka) inhibitor alpelisib, a mechanistic target of rapamycin inhibitor, and a CDK4 inhibitor that is in Phase 1b/2 clinical trial for the treatment of ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. It also develops OP-3136, an orally-available small molecule that potently and selectively inhibits KAT6 which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for patients with breast and other solid tumor cancers. The company was formerly known as CombiThera, Inc. and changed its name to Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in March 2009. Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

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