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NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc (NXRT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. With its common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange and primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-add potential in... Read more

$28.79+3.8% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#15 of 16 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.25%
IncomeYield7.36%(5y avg 4.23%)Payout4743.15%
Stop $27.27Target $29.87(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$30.40+5.6%5 analysts
$29.87our TP
$28.79price
$30.40mean
$27
$35

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14.9
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn-12.7%
ROE-9.7%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta1.22
Dividend7.36%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.0
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
1.9
Value Rank
7.5
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.56Resistance $30.48

Price Targets

$27
$30
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $27.27. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the NXRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.87 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $27.27. Stop-loss: $27.27.

What are the risks of investing in NXRT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is NXRT overvalued or undervalued?

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NXRT?

13 analysts cover NXRT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $30.

What does NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc do?NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. With its common stock listed on the...

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. With its common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange and primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-add potential in large cities and suburban submarkets of large cities, primarily in the Southeastern and Southwestern United States. NXRT is externally advised by NexPoint Real Estate Advisors, L.P., an affiliate of NexPoint Advisors, L.P., an SEC-registered investment advisor, which has extensive real estate experience. NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. was established on September 19, 2014 and is based in Dallas, United States.

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