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NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc (NXRT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5.

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. With its common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange and primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-add potential in... Read more

$28.79-0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#15 of 16 REIT - Residential
Stop $27.00Target $28.62(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$30.40+5.6%5 analysts
$28.62our TP
$28.79price
$30.40mean
$27
$35

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14.6
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA18.1
Profit Mgn-12.7%
ROE-9.7%
Rev Growth0.5%
Beta1.19
Dividend7.50%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
5.1

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
8.1

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
1.1
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
6.4
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.79Resistance $29.20

Price Targets

$27
$29
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $27.00. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the NXRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.62 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $27.00. Stop-loss: $27.00.

What are the risks of investing in NXRT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is NXRT overvalued or undervalued?

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NXRT?

13 analysts cover NXRT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $30.

What does NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc do?NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. With its common stock listed on the...

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. With its common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange and primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-add potential in large cities and suburban submarkets of large cities, primarily in the Southeastern and Southwestern United States. NXRT is externally advised by NexPoint Real Estate Advisors, L.P., an affiliate of NexPoint Advisors, L.P., an SEC-registered investment advisor, which has extensive real estate experience. NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. was established on September 19, 2014.

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