Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
- ▸Attractively valued
NWSA · Why this verdict
Why News (NWSA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
News Corporation offers an attractive entry point for patient investors, backed by a compelling free-cash-flow profile and a 3/4 recent earnings beat streak, though confirmed price weakness and a failed momentum gate warrant caution on adding new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.31 and forward P/E of 19.9x suggest the market is underpricing growth relative to the company's earnings trajectory, offering a margin of safety against near-term price weakness. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands toward the sector median as earnings growth is recognized, with price rising above $30 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe low PEG may reflect slow or uncertain growth rather than a genuine discount; if growth disappoints, the valuation support disappears. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 153% relative to net income demonstrates that the company is generating substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest, providing a durable capital return and reinvestment base. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, sustaining dividend coverage and opportunistic buybacks. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh FCF-to-net-income ratios in media companies can reflect working capital timing or one-time items rather than structural cash generation, making sustainability uncertain. | ||
Three beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7% indicates the company is consistently delivering above consensus expectations, reducing estimate-revision risk. Earnings | Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat streak could reflect conservative analyst estimates being set low, rather than genuine operating outperformance that compounds into higher intrinsic value. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, indicating a fundamentally sound business despite price weakness. Quality breakdown | F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, reflecting no material deterioration in profitability or liquidity. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores lag real-time developments and may not capture pending debt refinancing pressure or a revenue deceleration already in motion. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.31 and forward P/E of 19.9x suggest the market is underpricing growth relative to the company's earnings trajectory, offering a margin of safety against near-term price weakness.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands toward the sector median as earnings growth is recognized, with price rising above $30 over 12 months.
CounterThe low PEG may reflect slow or uncertain growth rather than a genuine discount; if growth disappoints, the valuation support disappears.
Free cash flow conversion of 153% relative to net income demonstrates that the company is generating substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest, providing a durable capital return and reinvestment base.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, sustaining dividend coverage and opportunistic buybacks.
CounterHigh FCF-to-net-income ratios in media companies can reflect working capital timing or one-time items rather than structural cash generation, making sustainability uncertain.
Three beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7% indicates the company is consistently delivering above consensus expectations, reducing estimate-revision risk.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 5%.
CounterThe beat streak could reflect conservative analyst estimates being set low, rather than genuine operating outperformance that compounds into higher intrinsic value.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, indicating a fundamentally sound business despite price weakness.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, reflecting no material deterioration in profitability or liquidity.
CounterPiotroski scores lag real-time developments and may not capture pending debt refinancing pressure or a revenue deceleration already in motion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 153% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 0.7 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.89
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 80.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.17
Upside
+21.3%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.3; weakest: Momentum at 2.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Value at 7.2, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Free cash flow conversion of 153% relative to net income demonstrates that the company is generating substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest, providing a durable capital return and reinvestment base.
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Three beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7% indicates the company is consistently delivering above consensus expectations, reducing estimate-revision risk.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3A PEG ratio of 0.31 and forward P/E of 19.9x suggest the market is underpricing growth relative to the company's earnings trajectory, offering a margin of safety against near-term price weakness.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 28x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth estimates.
- P4A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, indicating a fundamentally sound business despite price weakness.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any reported quarter.