Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
NWSA · Why this verdict
Why News (NWSA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
News Corporation offers an attractive entry point for patient investors, backed by a compelling free-cash-flow profile and a 3/4 recent earnings beat streak, though confirmed price weakness and a failed momentum gate warrant caution on adding new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.31 and forward P/E of 19.9x suggest the market is underpricing growth relative to the company's earnings trajectory, offering a margin of safety against near-term price weakness. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands toward the sector median as earnings growth is recognized, with price rising above $30 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe low PEG may reflect slow or uncertain growth rather than a genuine discount; if growth disappoints, the valuation support disappears. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 153% relative to net income demonstrates that the company is generating substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest, providing a durable capital return and reinvestment base. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, sustaining dividend coverage and opportunistic buybacks. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh FCF-to-net-income ratios in media companies can reflect working capital timing or one-time items rather than structural cash generation, making sustainability uncertain. | ||
Three beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7% indicates the company is consistently delivering above consensus expectations, reducing estimate-revision risk. Earnings | Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat streak could reflect conservative analyst estimates being set low, rather than genuine operating outperformance that compounds into higher intrinsic value. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, indicating a fundamentally sound business despite price weakness. Quality breakdown | F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, reflecting no material deterioration in profitability or liquidity. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores lag real-time developments and may not capture pending debt refinancing pressure or a revenue deceleration already in motion. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.31 and forward P/E of 19.9x suggest the market is underpricing growth relative to the company's earnings trajectory, offering a margin of safety against near-term price weakness.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands toward the sector median as earnings growth is recognized, with price rising above $30 over 12 months.
CounterThe low PEG may reflect slow or uncertain growth rather than a genuine discount; if growth disappoints, the valuation support disappears.
Free cash flow conversion of 153% relative to net income demonstrates that the company is generating substantially more cash than accounting earnings suggest, providing a durable capital return and reinvestment base.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, sustaining dividend coverage and opportunistic buybacks.
CounterHigh FCF-to-net-income ratios in media companies can reflect working capital timing or one-time items rather than structural cash generation, making sustainability uncertain.
Three beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.7% indicates the company is consistently delivering above consensus expectations, reducing estimate-revision risk.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 5%.
CounterThe beat streak could reflect conservative analyst estimates being set low, rather than genuine operating outperformance that compounds into higher intrinsic value.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, indicating a fundamentally sound business despite price weakness.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, reflecting no material deterioration in profitability or liquidity.
CounterPiotroski scores lag real-time developments and may not capture pending debt refinancing pressure or a revenue deceleration already in motion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 153% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.11
Upside
+15.4%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Growth at 7.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Quality at 6.0, and Technical at 6.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Fcf Conversion Strength
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Value Peg Discount
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 28x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth estimates.
- P4Piotroski Balance Sheet Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any reported quarter.