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NPFDNPFDHold5.9·$18.26-0.33%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The position screens attractively valued with a stated margin of safety, but a cash-conversion gap versus net income, a yield-trap warning on the dividend, and unattractive near-term risk/reward geometry temper the case for adding to it.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Earnings Quality Cash Conversion GapStable
  • Yield Trap WarningStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

NPFD (NPFD) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum.

Nuveen Variable Rate Preferred & Income Fund operates as a closed-end management investment company. The company is based in Chicago, Illinois.

$18.26+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#66 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.61%
IncomeYield10.15%Payout91.95%at-risk
Stop $17.94Target $18.38(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 43%
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.5
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$443M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn108.7%
ROE10.7%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta0.73
Dividend10.15%
Rating analysts

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·3 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.3
Volume
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Dividend Safety
3.0
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
Low model confidence on this dimension (25%).
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.19Resistance $18.75

Price Targets

$18
$18
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for NPFD.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NPFD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $18.38 (+0.7%), stop $17.94 (−1.8%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NPFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.38 (+0.7% upside). Target $18.38 (+0.7%), stop $17.94 (−1.8%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $17.94.

What are the risks of investing in NPFD?

Negative momentum.

Is NPFD overvalued or undervalued?

NPFD trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

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What does NPFD do?Nuveen Variable Rate Preferred & Income Fund operates as a closed-end management investment company. The company is...

Nuveen Variable Rate Preferred & Income Fund operates as a closed-end management investment company. The company is based in Chicago, Illinois.

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