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NMFCNew Mountain Finance CorporatioSell5.3·$7.14-0.70%
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New Mountain Finance Corporatio (NMFC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $7.14, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

New Mountain Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: NMFC), a business development company, is a private equity/buyouts and loan fund that specializes in directly investing and lending to middle market companies in “defensive growth” industries. The fund prefers investing in buyout and... Read more

$7.14+3.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#144 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield13.97%
IncomeYield16.95%(5y avg 11.13%)Payout800.00%at-risk
Stop $6.75Target $7.43(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$8.54+19.6%6 analysts
$7.43our TP
$7.14price
$8.54mean
$10

Sell if holding. At $7.14, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.9%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$675M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-18.6%
ROE-4.8%
Rev Growth-19.7%
Beta0.61
Dividend16.95%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
0.7
Value Rank
9.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MDividend: 1695.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.80Resistance $7.83

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMFC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $7.14, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.75. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.43 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $6.75. Stop-loss: $6.75.

What are the risks of investing in NMFC?

Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NMFC overvalued or undervalued?

New Mountain Finance Corporatio trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NMFC?

12 analysts cover NMFC with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $9.

What does New Mountain Finance Corporatio do?New Mountain Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: NMFC), a business development company, is a private equity/buyouts and loan...

New Mountain Finance Corporation (Nasdaq: NMFC), a business development company, is a private equity/buyouts and loan fund that specializes in directly investing and lending to middle market companies in “defensive growth” industries. The fund prefers investing in buyout and middle market companies. It also makes investments in debt securities at all levels of the capital structure, including first and second lien debt, unsecured notes, and mezzanine securities. In some cases, its investments may also include equity interests. It targets energy, engineering and consulting services, specialty chemicals and materials, trading companies and distributors, commercial printing, diversified support services, education services, environmental and facilities services, office services and supplies, media, distributors, health care services, health care facilities, Life Sciences, Enterprise Software, Financial Services and Technology, application software, business services, systems software, federal services, distribution and logistics, interactive home entertainment, telecommunication services, hydroelectric power generation, electric power generation by fossil fuels, electric power generation by nuclear fuels, health care technology, and security and alarm services. The fund seeks to invest in the United States of America. It seeks to invest between $10 million and $125 million per transaction. The firm invests through both primary originations and open-market secondary purchases. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $200 million. The fund seeks a majority stake in its portfolio companies.

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