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Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.28: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 11.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live optical... Read more

$4.28+132.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#11 of 27 Internet Content & Information
Stop $3.97Target $9.90(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 11.0:1
Analyst target$11.00+157.0%17 analysts
$9.90our TP
$4.28price
$11.00mean
$19

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.28: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 11.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)4.3
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA-6.6
Profit Mgn-16.7%
ROE-17.2%
Rev Growth37.0%
Beta2.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV103%elevated
Max Pain$3-41.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
5.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 7 days

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 11.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.83Resistance $5.05

Price Targets

$4
$10
A.Upside+131.3%
A.R:R11.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GENI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.28: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 11.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $3.97. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GENI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.90 (+132.1% upside). Prior stop was $3.97. Stop-loss: $3.97.

What are the risks of investing in GENI?

Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is GENI overvalued or undervalued?

Genius Sports Limited trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 4.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GENI?

25 analysts cover GENI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Genius Sports Limited do?Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media...

Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live optical tracking, event data, and video for league's operations; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also develops additional tools that help sports leagues deepen fan engagement; and digital content and gamification solutions, as well as provides consumer insights and fan intelligence services. In addition, it provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; and live streaming services. Further, the company offers BetVision, an interactive single-screen live streaming solution that provides integrated bet slip, real-time team and player statistics, personalized, and augmented viewing modes; and FanHub, an advertising solution that helps in creation, delivery, and optimization of digital marketing campaigns, including data-driven personalized ad creative and programmatic media buying. The company was formerly known as Genius Sports Group Limited and changed its name to Genius Sports Limited in April 2021. Genius Sports Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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