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MRLNMerlin, Inc.Sell4.4·$5.41-4.25%
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Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.41: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Merlin, Inc., an aerospace and defense technology company, develops AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft in the United States and New Zealand. The company provides an aircraft-agnostic, AI-powered software platform that enables autonomous flight for... Read more

$5.41+109.3% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#62 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
Stop $4.91Target $11.05(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.3:1
Analyst target$13.00+140.3%2 analysts
$11.05our TP
$5.41price
$13.00mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.41: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-7.3
Mkt Cap$510M
EV/EBITDA-8.2
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE
Rev Growth15.4%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C15.00bearish
IV122%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.3
Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 11.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Days To Cover
9.5
Elevated put/call: 15.00High IV: 122%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.2
Growth Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 7.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
30 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.76Resistance $10.25

Price Targets

$5
$11
A.Upside+104.3%
A.R:R7.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.41: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 15.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $4.91. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.05 (+109.3% upside). Prior stop was $4.91. Stop-loss: $4.91.

What are the risks of investing in MRLN?

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is MRLN overvalued or undervalued?

Merlin, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRLN?

7 analysts cover MRLN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Merlin, Inc. do?Merlin, Inc., an aerospace and defense technology company, develops AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems...

Merlin, Inc., an aerospace and defense technology company, develops AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft in the United States and New Zealand. The company provides an aircraft-agnostic, AI-powered software platform that enables autonomous flight for both legacy and next-generation airborne systems. Its main product, the Merlin Pilot, is an integrated hardware and software solution that manages navigation, communication with air traffic control, obstacle avoidance, and real-time decision-making using sensor technologies and natural language processing. The company supports both military and civil aviation programs, offering solutions for missions such as cargo transport and national security operations. It collaborates with partners and regulatory bodies to conduct flight trials and support the certification of autonomous flight systems. The company serves defense organizations, commercial aviation clients, government agencies, regulators, and air cargo operators. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.

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