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MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.14: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

MARA Holdings is a digital energy and infrastructure company mining bitcoin as its primary revenue source, operating ~490,000 mining rigs across 18 data centers on 4 continents with 66.4 EH/s energized hashrate as of December 31, 2025. The company held 53,822 bitcoin ($4.7... Read more

$12.14+30.9% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#38 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-11.20%
Stop $11.33Target $15.94(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$18.32+50.9%10 analysts
$15.94our TP
$12.14price
$18.32mean
$9
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.14: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — MARA Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14.4
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA-9.1
Profit Mgn-234.8%
ROE-67.3%
Rev Growth-18.4%
Beta5.43
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV93%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -18.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -18%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
2.8

Unprofitable operations — net margin -234.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Gross Margin
5.1
Current Ratio
6.5
Cash-burning: FCF -61% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.4
Support Resistance
4.6
Bollinger
4.8
Gap
6.0
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.27Resistance $13.80

Price Targets

$11
$16
A.Upside+31.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MARA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.14: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $11.33. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the MARA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.94 (+30.9% upside). Prior stop was $11.33. Stop-loss: $11.33.

What are the risks of investing in MARA?

Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is MARA overvalued or undervalued?

MARA Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MARA?

22 analysts cover MARA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $18.

What does MARA Holdings, Inc. do?MARA Holdings is a digital energy and infrastructure company mining bitcoin as its primary revenue source, operating...

MARA Holdings is a digital energy and infrastructure company mining bitcoin as its primary revenue source, operating ~490,000 mining rigs across 18 data centers on 4 continents with 66.4 EH/s energized hashrate as of December 31, 2025. The company held 53,822 bitcoin ($4.7 billion at year-end) and is expanding into AI/HPC infrastructure through a Starwood joint venture (1+ GW planned) and the Exaion acquisition (France-based HPC/cloud infrastructure).

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