MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MARA stock price target?

Take-profit $14.33 (+18.6% upside). Prior stop was $11.24.

Q: What are the risks of investing in MARA?

Concentration risk — Product: bitcoin mining revenue; Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based mining hardware manufacturers; Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-17.6% YoY), Material insider selling (13 sells, 0.10% of cap).

Q: Is MARA overvalued or undervalued?

MARA Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MARA?

22 analysts cover MARA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $16.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

MARA Holdings is an energy and digital infrastructure company operating 18 data centers across 4 continents with ~1.9 GW total capacity, using Bitcoin mining as a flexible workload to monetize power. Revenue is primarily derived from Bitcoin mining and bitcoin lending... Read more

$12.14+18.6% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#40 of 40 Capital Markets

Stop $11.24Target $14.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1

Analyst target$16.47+35.7%11 analysts

$14.33our TP

$12.14price

$16.47mean

$30

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: bitcoin mining revenue

Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based mining hardware manufacturers

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-9.2

Mkt Cap$4.1B

EV/EBITDA-20.4

Profit Mgn-144.6%

ROE-34.5%

Rev Growth-5.6%

Beta5.30

DividendNone

Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish

IV100%elevated

Max Pain$1-91.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductbitcoin mining revenue
10-K Item 1A: 'because our revenue is primarily derived from mining bitcoin, our profitability fluctuates in direct correlation with bitcoin price movements'
HIGHSupplierChina-based mining hardware manufacturers
10-K Item 1A: 'The global supply of miners is unpredictable and presently heavily dependent on manufacturers based in China.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
Talent, Culture and Compensation Committee approved new RSU and PSU award agreement forms under the 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, effective February 20, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement update; no officer changes.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

6 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.415%1.11

Quality2.515%0.38

Growth1.115%0.17

Momentum3.910%0.39

Sentiment7.710%0.77

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank1.010%0.10

Technical Setup1.65%0.08

Risk Profile4.05%0.20

Catalyst3.95%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)3.77

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.3

Growth Rank

0.8

Value Rank

3.1

Revenue shrinking — -5.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.1

Declining revenue: -6%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.3

Support Resistance

0.4

Bollinger

1.7

Gap

4.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -144.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Piotroski F

2.2

Current Ratio

4.8

Moat

5.0

Gross Margin

5.6

Cash-burning: FCF -44% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv

1.0

Rsi

2.8

Volume

3.1

Ma Position

6.0

Macd

6.8

Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg

0.0

Earnings History

3.3

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

News Activity

6.0

Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 7 days

GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

73 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.63Resistance $12.26

Price Targets

$11

$14

A.Upside+18.0%

A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-17.6% YoY), Material insider selling (13 sells, 0.10% of cap)

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MARA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $11.24. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the MARA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.33 (+18.6% upside). Prior stop was $11.24. Stop-loss: $11.24.

What are the risks of investing in MARA?

Concentration risk — Product: bitcoin mining revenue; Concentration risk — Supplier: China-based mining hardware manufacturers; Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is MARA overvalued or undervalued?

MARA Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MARA?

22 analysts cover MARA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $16.

What does MARA Holdings, Inc. do?MARA Holdings is an energy and digital infrastructure company operating 18 data centers across 4 continents with ~1.9...