Skip to main content

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $510.26: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Mastercard is a global payments technology company that switches payment transactions through its proprietary network, generating $32.8B in net revenue in 2025 across $10.6T in gross dollar volume and 175.5B switched transactions. It earns fees from financial institutions,... Read more

$510.26+18.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#7 of 28 Credit Services
Stop $483.75Target $600.48(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$652.69+27.9%36 analysts
$600.48our TP
$510.26price
$652.69mean
$735

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $510.26: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.8
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$464.5B
EV/EBITDA23.2
Profit Mgn45.6%
ROE209.9%
Rev Growth17.6%
Beta0.83
Dividend0.66%
Rating analysts48

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$445-12.8% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    Mastercard's Compensation Committee approved base salary and annual incentive bonus adjustments for Named Executive Officers effective March 1, 2026. No departures or appointments disclosed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.5>=5.5A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $486.91Resistance $534.21

Price Targets

$484
$600
A.Upside+17.7%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts48
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$653

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $510.26: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $483.75. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $600.48 (+18.3% upside). Prior stop was $483.75. Stop-loss: $483.75.

What are the risks of investing in MA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MA overvalued or undervalued?

Mastercard Incorporated trades at a P/E of 31.8 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MA?

48 analysts cover MA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $653.

What does Mastercard Incorporated do?Mastercard is a global payments technology company that switches payment transactions through its proprietary network,...

Mastercard is a global payments technology company that switches payment transactions through its proprietary network, generating $32.8B in net revenue in 2025 across $10.6T in gross dollar volume and 175.5B switched transactions. It earns fees from financial institutions, merchants, and other customers for payment processing, security, and data services.

Related stocks: V (Visa Inc.) · COF (Capital One Financial Corporati) · PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.) · AXP (American Express Company)