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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $502.23 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.53).

Mastercard is a global payments technology company operating a four-party network enabling transactions in 150+ currencies across 220+ countries and territories, processing $10.6 trillion in gross dollar volume in 2025. Net revenue of $32.8 billion in 2025 (up 16%) comes from... Read more

$493.51+23.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#11 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.66%
IncomeYield0.70%(5y avg 0.54%)Payout18.23%sustainable
Entry $502.23(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $479.66Target $595.21(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$646.97+31.1%36 analysts
$595.21our TP
$493.51price
$646.97mean
$735

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $502.23 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.53). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: conservative.

Val4.4Qual8.6Grw6.3Mom3.2Sent7.3Ins5.0Peer5.3Tech7.2Risk7.16.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Mastercard Incorporated

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.53)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.9
P/E (Fwd)22.0
Mkt Cap$441.5B
EV/EBITDA21.2
Profit Mgn45.9%
ROE232.1%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta0.76
Dividend0.70%
Rating analysts50

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$590+19.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Sandra Arkell (Corporate Controller, principal accounting officer) to move to Chief Audit Executive role August 3, 2026. Chris Mullett appointed successor Corporate Controller and principal accounting officer effective August 3, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.6
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
44 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $488.01Resistance $534.21

Price Targets

$480
$502
$595
A.Upside+20.6%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2.5%
Max %5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MA stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $502.23 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.53). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $595.21 (+20.6%), stop $479.66 (−2.9%), Setup A.R:R 5.0:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $595.21 (+23.6% upside). Target $595.21 (+20.6%), stop $479.66 (−2.9%), Setup A.R:R 5.0:1. Stop-loss: $479.66.

What are the risks of investing in MA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.53); Negative momentum.

Is MA overvalued or undervalued?

Mastercard Incorporated trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MA?

50 analysts cover MA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $647.

What does Mastercard Incorporated do?Mastercard is a global payments technology company operating a four-party network enabling transactions in 150+...

Mastercard is a global payments technology company operating a four-party network enabling transactions in 150+ currencies across 220+ countries and territories, processing $10.6 trillion in gross dollar volume in 2025. Net revenue of $32.8 billion in 2025 (up 16%) comes from network switching fees, service fees, data analytics, and other value-added services to financial institutions, merchants, governments, and businesses.

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