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AXPAmerican Express CompanyHold5.9·$316.00+1.18%
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American Express Company (AXP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $316.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Delta cobrand portfolio (13.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

American Express is a global payments network and premium card issuer serving consumers, small businesses, and corporations, with $1,670 billion in worldwide billed business and 86.6 million proprietary cards-in-force for 2025. Revenue comes from merchant discount fees, Card... Read more

$316.00+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#17 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.22%(5y avg 1.10%)Payout21.29%sustainable
Stop $301.59Target $325.41(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$361.57+14.4%24 analysts
$325.41our TP
$316.00price
$361.57mean
$285
$450

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $316.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Delta cobrand portfolio (13.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 24, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Delta cobrand portfolio (13.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.5
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$213.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE34.4%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta1.06
Dividend1.22%
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$380+20.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerDelta cobrand portfolio13%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Delta cobrand portfolio continued to represent approximately 13 percent of worldwide billed business and approximately 21 percent of worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerall cobrand portfolios (billed business)26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'All of our cobrand portfolios in the aggregate accounted for approximately 26 percent of our worldwide billed business for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMCustomercobrand portfolios (Card Member loans)36%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Card Member loans related to our cobrand portfolios accounted for approximately 36 percent of our worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.8
Support Resistance
2.9
52w Position
6.4
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $300.03Resistance $322.54

Price Targets

$302
$325
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (3.0% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $316.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Delta cobrand portfolio (13.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $325.41 (+3.0%), stop $301.59 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $325.41 (+3.0% upside). Target $325.41 (+3.0%), stop $301.59 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $301.59.

What are the risks of investing in AXP?

Concentration risk — Customer: Delta cobrand portfolio (13.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is AXP overvalued or undervalued?

American Express Company trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AXP?

35 analysts cover AXP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $362.

What does American Express Company do?American Express is a global payments network and premium card issuer serving consumers, small businesses, and...

American Express is a global payments network and premium card issuer serving consumers, small businesses, and corporations, with $1,670 billion in worldwide billed business and 86.6 million proprietary cards-in-force for 2025. Revenue comes from merchant discount fees, Card Member interest, annual card fees, and partner arrangements. Delta is the largest cobrand partner at approximately 13% of worldwide billed business.

Related stocks: V (Visa Inc.) · MA (Mastercard Incorporated) · AFRM (Affirm Holdings, Inc.) · SYF (Synchrony Financial) · COF (Capital One Financial Corporati)
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