Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
LPG · Why this verdict
Why Dorian LPG (LPG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality franchise with best-in-class margins, a perfect Piotroski financial health score, and 105% year-over-year revenue growth trades at an attractive forward valuation, but the stock offers only 3.5% headroom to the analyst take-profit target from current levels and must demonstrate that the most recent large earnings beat marks a durable reversal of the three prior quarterly misses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a quality score of 7.9, a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, operating margins of 41%, and a Rule-of-40 result the notes characterize as elite — placing it among the highest-quality franchises in its peer group by quality rank. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score remains at 8 or higher and operating margins stay above 35% over the next four reported quarters, confirming the quality profile is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at only about 26 cents per dollar of reported net income — a significant red flag — meaning cash generation substantially lags reported profits; if this gap does not close, the high-quality characterization may overstate the sustainable economic earnings power of the business. | ||
Revenue grew 105% year-over-year, placing the business at the top of its peer group for growth and establishing it as an industry expansion leader; the peer-rank notes separately confirm best-in-class status on both margins and growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 30% year-over-year for at least two consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating that the triple-digit trajectory is structural rather than a single-period event. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth rates mechanically compress in subsequent periods due to base effects; the three earnings misses in the quarters preceding the most recent beat signal execution volatility that could disrupt the growth narrative as comparisons tighten. | ||
Free cash flow equals only about 26% of reported net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company retains far less cash than its income statement implies and reported profits may materially overstate true economic value creation. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 60% over the next two annual reporting periods, confirming that profits are translating into cash. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a capital-intensive or high-growth shipping business, fleet investment or working-capital deployment can temporarily compress cash conversion; if the gap reflects deliberate reinvestment rather than structural impairment, cash generation may normalize as the growth phase matures. | ||
With the stock about 3.5% below the analyst take-profit target from current levels, near-term headroom is minimal; a risk/reward ratio of roughly 1.6-to-1 clears the minimum bar only modestly and the asymmetry gate remains technically failed at current entry. Price targets | A pullback toward the entry target near $41 or below restores at least 9% upside to the take-profit level, improving the geometric setup meaningfully before initiating a position. | →Stable |
| CounterA high-conviction setup with strong quality and growth alignment can justify a small starter position even at thin near-term upside if the fundamental trajectory is improving and the next catalyst is within 45 days. | ||
Three of the four most recently reported quarters resulted in earnings misses before the most recent large beat; the prior miss streak raises questions about earnings predictability that one quarter of outperformance alone does not resolve. Earnings | The company reports EPS above consensus estimates in 3 of the next 4 quarters, establishing a new pattern of consistent delivery that supersedes the prior miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's 46% upside surprise was unusually large, suggesting that the prior misses may have set consensus estimates at levels that proved excessively conservative once operating conditions normalized. | ||
The business carries a quality score of 7.9, a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, operating margins of 41%, and a Rule-of-40 result the notes characterize as elite — placing it among the highest-quality franchises in its peer group by quality rank.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score remains at 8 or higher and operating margins stay above 35% over the next four reported quarters, confirming the quality profile is durable.
CounterFree cash flow converts at only about 26 cents per dollar of reported net income — a significant red flag — meaning cash generation substantially lags reported profits; if this gap does not close, the high-quality characterization may overstate the sustainable economic earnings power of the business.
Revenue grew 105% year-over-year, placing the business at the top of its peer group for growth and establishing it as an industry expansion leader; the peer-rank notes separately confirm best-in-class status on both margins and growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 30% year-over-year for at least two consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating that the triple-digit trajectory is structural rather than a single-period event.
CounterTriple-digit growth rates mechanically compress in subsequent periods due to base effects; the three earnings misses in the quarters preceding the most recent beat signal execution volatility that could disrupt the growth narrative as comparisons tighten.
Free cash flow equals only about 26% of reported net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company retains far less cash than its income statement implies and reported profits may materially overstate true economic value creation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income recovers above 60% over the next two annual reporting periods, confirming that profits are translating into cash.
CounterIn a capital-intensive or high-growth shipping business, fleet investment or working-capital deployment can temporarily compress cash conversion; if the gap reflects deliberate reinvestment rather than structural impairment, cash generation may normalize as the growth phase matures.
With the stock about 3.5% below the analyst take-profit target from current levels, near-term headroom is minimal; a risk/reward ratio of roughly 1.6-to-1 clears the minimum bar only modestly and the asymmetry gate remains technically failed at current entry.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback toward the entry target near $41 or below restores at least 9% upside to the take-profit level, improving the geometric setup meaningfully before initiating a position.
CounterA high-conviction setup with strong quality and growth alignment can justify a small starter position even at thin near-term upside if the fundamental trajectory is improving and the next catalyst is within 45 days.
Three of the four most recently reported quarters resulted in earnings misses before the most recent large beat; the prior miss streak raises questions about earnings predictability that one quarter of outperformance alone does not resolve.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company reports EPS above consensus estimates in 3 of the next 4 quarters, establishing a new pattern of consistent delivery that supersedes the prior miss streak.
CounterThe most recent quarter's 46% upside surprise was unusually large, suggesting that the prior misses may have set consensus estimates at levels that proved excessively conservative once operating conditions normalized.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 9.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 41%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 105% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,299,356 (0.076% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| put call | 8.7 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 739.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Value play: 41% MoS with quality 7.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.31
Upside
+11.9%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (7.9) with weak momentum (3.9)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.31.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.2, and Quality at 7.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Insider at 3.9, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.31 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business carries a quality score of 7.9, a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, operating margins of 41%, and a Rule-of-40 result the notes characterize as elite — placing it among the highest-quality franchises in its peer group by quality rank.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reporting periods, indicating deterioration in the financial health profile.
- P2Revenue grew 105% year-over-year, placing the business at the top of its peer group for growth and establishing it as an industry expansion leader; the peer-rank notes separately confirm best-in-class status on both margins and growth.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Free cash flow equals only about 26% of reported net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company retains far less cash than its income statement implies and reported profits may materially overstate true economic value creation.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive annual periods, resolving the cash-conversion concern.
- P4With the stock about 3.5% below the analyst take-profit target from current levels, near-term headroom is minimal; a risk/reward ratio of roughly 1.6-to-1 clears the minimum bar only modestly and the asymmetry gate remains technically failed at current entry.
Trip ifStock price pulls back below $40.88, restoring at least 9% upside to the analyst take-profit target.
- P5Three of the four most recently reported quarters resulted in earnings misses before the most recent large beat; the prior miss streak raises questions about earnings predictability that one quarter of outperformance alone does not resolve.
Trip ifEPS falls below consensus estimates for 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.