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Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc. (KW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.01: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality.

Kennedy-Wilson is a real estate investment company and investment manager with $36.4B of AUM focused on rental housing (multifamily and affordable) and real estate credit, primarily in the US, UK, and Ireland. The company generated $501M in revenue in 2025 and $115.2M in asset... Read more

$11.01-1.2% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#12 of 16 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-1.46%
IncomeYield4.35%(5y avg 6.05%)Payout400.00%
Stop $10.93Target $10.87(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$9.00-18.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.01: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.2Qual3.7Grw2.3Mom6.1Sent4.2Ins5.0Peer3.7Tech5.5Risk4.74.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-30.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)91.9
P/E (Fwd)-10.3
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA31.7
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE5.0%
Rev Growth-0.8%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.35%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C3.33bearish
IV123%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicUnited Kingdom and Ireland
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 29% of our revenues were sourced from our foreign operations in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy and Spain, 96% of which was sourced from our operations in the United Kingdom and Ireland'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.6
Roe
1.7
Current Ratio
1.7
Rule Of 40
3.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.6
Net Margin
5.5
Operating Margin
6.2
Gross Margin
10.0
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -38% FCF/NINo competitive moatRule of 40: -5 (fail)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
6.4
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.87Resistance $11.09

Price Targets

$11
$11
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-30.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.01: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $10.93. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.87 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $10.93. Stop-loss: $10.93.

What are the risks of investing in KW?

Target reached (-30.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is KW overvalued or undervalued?

Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 91.9 (forward -10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KW?

9 analysts cover KW with a consensus score of 2.0/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc. do?Kennedy-Wilson is a real estate investment company and investment manager with $36.4B of AUM focused on rental housing...

Kennedy-Wilson is a real estate investment company and investment manager with $36.4B of AUM focused on rental housing (multifamily and affordable) and real estate credit, primarily in the US, UK, and Ireland. The company generated $501M in revenue in 2025 and $115.2M in asset management fees; approximately 29% of revenues came from foreign operations (96% from UK and Ireland). A take-private by Fairfax affiliates was announced February 2026.

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