Kearny Financial screens as attractively valued with a strong growth profile and a technical breakout on a golden cross, backed by bullish insider buying, but the stock has already reached its analyst target with a negative asymmetry ratio, a negative news modifier that downgraded the action note toward sell, and two recent earnings misses.
Thesis pillars
- Target Reached News Downgrade↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Strong Growth→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Kearny Financial (KRNY) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $9.55, A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey and New York (93.3%).
Kearny Financial Corp. is the New Jersey-chartered savings-bank holding company for Kearny Bank, operating 43 branch offices across northern New Jersey and Brooklyn/Staten Island, New York, as of June 30, 2025. The bank gathers deposits and originates loans collateralized... Read more
Sell if holding. At $9.55, A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey and New York (93.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Kearny Financial
About Kearny Financial
Kearny Financial Corp., the holding company for Kearny Bank, held a $5.81 billion loan portfolio as of June 30, 2025, dominated by multi-family mortgages at 46.6% and one- to four-family residential mortgages at 30.1% of the total. The bank operates 43 branches concentrated in northern New Jersey and Brooklyn and Staten Island, New York, and is primarily regulated by the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance and, as a nonmember bank, the FDIC.
Kearny earns income mainly from the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings, a margin pressured by an inverted-at-points yield curve and by 75.5% of the loan book carrying fixed rates that reprice slowly. Core non-maturity deposit accounts, which the company emphasizes as its primary funding strategy, totaled $3.70 billion, or 65.2% of total deposits, at June 30, 2025, supplemented by $539.1 million of public-funds deposits from New Jersey municipalities and school districts and by $2.0 billion of wholesale funding, or approximately 26.0% of total assets, including brokered deposits and FHLB and Federal Reserve borrowings. On the asset side, the bank also holds $1.12 billion of investment securities, 89.4% of which are classified available-for-sale, mostly U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities supplemented by corporate bonds, municipal obligations, and collateralized loan obligations. Commercial and industrial loans remain a small share of the book at 2.4%, reflecting the bank's continuing shift from a traditional thrift model toward full-service commercial banking.
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Kearny's credit exposure is geographically concentrated rather than diversified: 93.3% of its one- to four-family residential mortgage loans are secured by properties in New Jersey and New York, and its commercial lending is similarly focused on borrowers domiciled in those two states. The 10-K acknowledges that, unlike larger institutions, Kearny is 'not able to spread the risks of unfavorable local economic conditions across a large number of diversified economies,' meaning a regional downturn in the New York metro area would fall disproportionately on both its loan book and its collateral values, rather than being absorbed by a nationally diversified footprint.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Kearny Financial's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — Kearny Financial
Latest news
- NEWS Kearny Financial (NASDAQ:KRNY) Stock Price Crosses Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Time to Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS KRNY Q2 2026 Earnings: Modest EPS Miss Amid Stable Stock Response - Geographic Revenue Trends - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS Kearny Financial (NASDAQ:KRNY) Hits New 1-Year High - Should You Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Kearny (KRNY) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Comments on KRNY Q4 Earnings - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-09-23T22:42:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliomulti-family mortgage loans47%10-K Item 1: 'multi-family mortgage loans totaled $2.71 billion, or 46.6% of our loan portfolio'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioone- to four-family residential mortgage loans30%10-K Item 1: 'one- to four-family residential mortgage loans totaled $1.75 billion, or 30.1% of our loan portfolio'
- HIGHGeographicNew Jersey and New York93%10-K Item 1: '$1.63 billion, or 93.3%, of our one- to four-family residential mortgage loans were secured by properties located within New Jersey and New York'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliowholesale funding10-K Item 1A: 'Our reliance on wholesale funding could adversely affect our liquidity and operating results.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $9.55, A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey and New York (93.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.17. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.03 (-5.1% upside). Prior stop was $9.17. Stop-loss: $9.17.
Single-region cliff: 93% exposure to New Jersey and New York (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: New Jersey and New York (93.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Kearny Financial trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover KRNY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Kearny Financial do?Kearny Financial Corp. is the New Jersey-chartered savings-bank holding company for Kearny Bank, operating 43 branch...
Kearny Financial Corp. is the New Jersey-chartered savings-bank holding company for Kearny Bank, operating 43 branch offices across northern New Jersey and Brooklyn/Staten Island, New York, as of June 30, 2025. The bank gathers deposits and originates loans collateralized primarily by multi-family and residential real estate, reporting a $5.81 billion loan portfolio and a 14.49% Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, and is primarily regulated by the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance and the FDIC.