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KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.3%.

KeyCorp is a bank holding company with $184.4B in assets, providing consumer and commercial banking through 940 full-service branches in 15 states. Its Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank segments serve individuals, small businesses, middle market, and large institutional clients.... Read more

$21.18+6.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#49 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.92%(5y avg 4.85%)Payout50.31%sustainable
Stop $20.28Target $22.48(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$24.97+17.9%19 analysts
$22.48our TP
$21.18price
$24.97mean
$43

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.3%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — KeyCorp

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases (72.0%)
Thin upside margin: 6.3%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$22.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth11.8%
Beta1.05
Dividend3.92%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.53bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$3-85.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 72% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, including commercial mortgage and construction loans, and commercial leases'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Amy G. Brady (Chief Information Officer) announced resignation from KeyCorp on February 24, 2026 due to personal health considerations. No successor named in the filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.6
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.69Resistance $22.43

Price Targets

$20
$22
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KEY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.3%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.48 (+6.1%), stop $20.28 (−4.4%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KEY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.48 (+6.3% upside). Target $22.48 (+6.1%), stop $20.28 (−4.4%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $20.28.

What are the risks of investing in KEY?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and commercial leases (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is KEY overvalued or undervalued?

KeyCorp trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KEY?

24 analysts cover KEY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $25.

What does KeyCorp do?KeyCorp is a bank holding company with $184.4B in assets, providing consumer and commercial banking through 940...

KeyCorp is a bank holding company with $184.4B in assets, providing consumer and commercial banking through 940 full-service branches in 15 states. Its Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank segments serve individuals, small businesses, middle market, and large institutional clients. Approximately 72% of the loan portfolio consists of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate, and commercial leases.

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