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KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

KeyCorp is an Ohio-headquartered bank holding company with approximately $184.4 billion in total assets, serving retail and commercial banking customers through KeyBank's 940 branches in 15 states. Revenue comes from net interest income on commercial and consumer loans,... Read more

$22.05+1.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#57 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $21.07Target $22.43(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$24.92+13.0%19 analysts
$22.43our TP
$22.05price
$24.92mean
$43

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases (72.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$23.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta1.07
Dividend3.78%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV47%normal
Max Pain$11-50.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantcommercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 72% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans...and commercial leases'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Amy G. Brady, Chief Information Officer, informed KeyCorp of her intention to resign due to personal health considerations. No successor named in the filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.82Resistance $22.55

Price Targets

$21
$22
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KEY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.43 (+1.7%), stop $21.07 (−4.7%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KEY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.43 (+1.7% upside). Target $22.43 (+1.7%), stop $21.07 (−4.7%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $21.07.

What are the risks of investing in KEY?

Concentration risk — Tenant: commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KEY overvalued or undervalued?

KeyCorp trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KEY?

27 analysts cover KEY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $25.

What does KeyCorp do?KeyCorp is an Ohio-headquartered bank holding company with approximately $184.4 billion in total assets, serving retail...

KeyCorp is an Ohio-headquartered bank holding company with approximately $184.4 billion in total assets, serving retail and commercial banking customers through KeyBank's 940 branches in 15 states. Revenue comes from net interest income on commercial and consumer loans, investment banking, capital markets, and fee-based services through Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank segments. Scotiabank holds a significant equity interest following its 2023 investment.

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