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KBDCKayne Anderson BDC, Inc.Sell6.0·$13.07
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kayne Anderson BDC screens as cheap on a forward-earnings basis with a supportive pullback-buy technical setup and a recent run of earnings strength, but quality sits below the minimum floor, the stock has already reached its price target with an unfavorable stated risk/reward, and the data flags the dividend itself as a yield trap.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Low Peg→Stable
  • Below Floor Quality No Moat→Stable
  • Negative Asymmetry Target Reached→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.07: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. is business development company and an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified management investment company that intends to elect to be regulated as a BDC under the 1940 Act. The fund seeks to make investments in middle-market companies. It also... Read more

$13.07-3.5% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#60 of 229 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield12.24%Payout146.79%at-risk
Stop $12.53Analyst target $12.62(reached)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst consensus$14.50+10.9%5 analysts with price targets
$13.07price
$14.50mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.07: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

No fresh coverage since Sep 1, 2026

Recent Developments — Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.

Latest item Sep 1, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-03T11:39:29Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.0
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$863M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE—
Rev Growth—
Beta—
Dividend12.24%
Analysts with ratings11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.5
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
7.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.4
Ma Position
6.5
Macd
7.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.14Resistance $13.10

Price Targets

A.Upside-3.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KBDC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.07: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $12.53. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KBDC stock price target?

Analyst target $12.62 reached (−3.5% from $13.07); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $12.53. Stop-loss: $12.53.

What are the risks of investing in KBDC?

Target reached (-3.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is KBDC overvalued or undervalued?

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KBDC?

11 analysts rate KBDC, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $15.

What does Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. do?Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. is business development company and an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified...

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. is business development company and an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified management investment company that intends to elect to be regulated as a BDC under the 1940 Act. The fund seeks to make investments in middle-market companies. It also makes debt investments in middle-market companies and investing primarily in first lien senior secured, unitranche, and split-lien loans to privately held middle-market companies. The fund considers between 80% and 90% of its portfolio (including investments purchased with proceeds from borrowings) will be invested in first lien senior secured, unitranche and split-lien term loans. The remaining 10% to 20% of its portfolio will be invested in higher-yielding investments, including, but not limited to, second lien loans, last-out or subordinated loans, non-investment grade broadly syndicated leveraged loans, high-yield bonds, structured products (including CLO liabilities), real estate related debt securities, equity securities purchased in conjunction with debt investments and other opportunistic investments.

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