Should you buy Ingersoll Rand (IR)?
Updated
Ingersoll Rand presents an unusually strong balance sheet — perfect financial health score and free cash flow conversion of 176% — but the current price geometry offers only 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, and the stock remains in a confirmed near-term downtrend, making the setup unfavorable until asymmetry improves.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise. Quality breakdown | The financial health score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow conversion stays above 130% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh balance-sheet scores can lag fundamental deterioration; the forward multiple of 20x prices in continued execution, and any deceleration in margins or cash generation would be punished at this valuation. | ||
At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position. Engine gate (failed) | The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or meaningful upward revision in analyst targets within the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry can improve quickly if a positive earnings catalyst compresses the downside estimate; the current setup is a timing issue, not a fundamental impairment of the underlying business. | ||
While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above the 200-day moving average on rising volume and sustains the breakout for at least 3 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe moving average slope is still declining at -1.6% over 30 days in a confirmed downtrend; an improving MACD alone has not confirmed a trend change and price must follow before the recovery is real. | ||
The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise.
→Stable- Expectation
- The financial health score remains at 8 or above and free cash flow conversion stays above 130% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterHigh balance-sheet scores can lag fundamental deterioration; the forward multiple of 20x prices in continued execution, and any deceleration in margins or cash generation would be punished at this valuation.
At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position.
→Stable- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or meaningful upward revision in analyst targets within the next 6 months.
CounterThe asymmetry can improve quickly if a positive earnings catalyst compresses the downside estimate; the current setup is a timing issue, not a fundamental impairment of the underlying business.
While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery.
→Stable- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above the 200-day moving average on rising volume and sustains the breakout for at least 3 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe moving average slope is still declining at -1.6% over 30 days in a confirmed downtrend; an improving MACD alone has not confirmed a trend change and price must follow before the recovery is real.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
With 58% of revenues generated outside the United States and single-source dependencies for key iron castings and motors, the business carries meaningful concentration risk that could impair earnings if either exposure is disrupted.
→Stable- Expectation
- International revenue share stays below 62% and no single-source supply disruption is disclosed in upcoming 10-K filings.
CounterGeographic diversification also acts as a growth driver in international markets; long-standing single-source supplier relationships often embed switching costs that reduce — rather than increase — actual procurement risk over time.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business achieves a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score and converts 176% of net income into free cash flow, both marks that sit well above typical industrial-sector peers and indicate a financially durable franchise.
Trip ifFinancial health score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2At current prices the stock offers approximately 9.3% upside against 11.3% potential downside, a ratio of roughly 0.8-to-1 that is well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify a new position.
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 following a price decline of more than 8% from current levels.
- P3While the 200-day moving average slope is still declining, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, suggesting early accumulation that may precede a broader technical recovery.
Trip ifRSI closes below 40 for 3 or more consecutive weeks, confirming the momentum recovery has stalled.
- P4With 58% of revenues generated outside the United States and single-source dependencies for key iron castings and motors, the business carries meaningful concentration risk that could impair earnings if either exposure is disrupted.
Trip ifInternational revenue falls below 50% of total in an annual filing, materially reducing geographic concentration.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.0/10 at $81.97. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 0.15 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk at 0.1 vs threshold 1.5. SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5.
On the bear side: Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (2.2% upside), V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $81.97, with structural invalidation at $76.55. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 0.33 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates IR — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸Concentration risk — Geographic: revenues outside the United States (58.0%)
- ▸Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source iron castings and motors
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining