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IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.35: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

IPG Photonics develops and manufactures high-performance fiber lasers, diode lasers, and laser systems for materials processing (86% of 2025 revenue), medical, and advanced applications. Revenue was $1,003.8M in 2025, sold globally to OEMs, system integrators, and end users with... Read more

$106.35+9.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#13 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.01%
Stop $98.91Target $115.93(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$133.25+25.3%6 analysts
$115.93our TP
$106.35price
$133.25mean
$93
$162

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.35: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — IPG Photonics Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: materials processing market (85.7%)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)156.4
P/E (Fwd)46.4
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA40.5
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE1.4%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta0.98
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$70-34.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicChina29%
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our sales are to customers in China, which accounted for 29%, 25% and 28% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHProductmaterials processing market86%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 86% of our revenues in 2025 were from customers in the materials processing market.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.2
Roa
0.4
Roe
0.5
Operating Margin
0.8
Net Margin
1.4
Gross Margin
3.5
Moat
6.4
Current Ratio
7.2
Piotroski F
10.0
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 2% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $86.00Resistance $130.01

Price Targets

$99
$116
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IPGP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.35: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $98.91. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IPGP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $115.93 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $98.91. Stop-loss: $98.91.

What are the risks of investing in IPGP?

Concentration risk — Product: materials processing market (85.7%); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is IPGP overvalued or undervalued?

IPG Photonics Corporation trades at a P/E of 156.4 (forward 46.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IPGP?

16 analysts cover IPGP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $133.

What does IPG Photonics Corporation do?IPG Photonics develops and manufactures high-performance fiber lasers, diode lasers, and laser systems for materials...

IPG Photonics develops and manufactures high-performance fiber lasers, diode lasers, and laser systems for materials processing (86% of 2025 revenue), medical, and advanced applications. Revenue was $1,003.8M in 2025, sold globally to OEMs, system integrators, and end users with major manufacturing in the U.S. and Germany.

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