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Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. (IOVA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.31: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 10.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Iovance Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical with two products: Amtagvi (lifileucel), the first approved TIL cell therapy for advanced melanoma, and Proleukin (aldesleukin). Products are sold to US hospitals and clinics, with Amtagvi approved in the US and... Read more

$3.31+135.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#64 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $3.09Target $7.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 10.4:1
Analyst target$9.00+171.9%10 analysts
$7.83our TP
$3.31price
$9.00mean
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.31: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 10.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source vendors / limited manufacturers for TIL cell therapy manufacturing
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-11.9
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA-3.1
Profit Mgn-148.4%
ROE-55.5%
Rev Growth17.7%
Beta0.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV154%elevated
Max Pain$1-84.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole source vendors / limited manufacturers for TIL cell therapy manufacturing
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely or may rely on treatment sites, limited manufacturers, sole source vendors, or a limited number of vendors, which could impair our ability to manufacture and supply our products'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    Director Wendy Yarno announced retirement from the Board and will not stand for re-election at the Annual Meeting anticipated June 2026. Departure not due to disagreement. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Volatile — 6.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
0.7
Days To Cover
2.5
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
5.2
Beta
8.4
High short interest justified: 28%High IV: 154%Above max pain $0Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -148.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
2.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
9.8
Cash-burning: FCF -62% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 7 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
4.7
Value Rank
7.0
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 10.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.18Resistance $4.31

Price Targets

$3
$8
A.Upside+136.6%
A.R:R10.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IOVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.31: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 10.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $3.09. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IOVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.83 (+135.8% upside). Prior stop was $3.09. Stop-loss: $3.09.

What are the risks of investing in IOVA?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source vendors / limited manufacturers for TIL cell therapy manufacturing; Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is IOVA overvalued or undervalued?

Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IOVA?

17 analysts cover IOVA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. do?Iovance Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical with two products: Amtagvi (lifileucel), the first...

Iovance Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical with two products: Amtagvi (lifileucel), the first approved TIL cell therapy for advanced melanoma, and Proleukin (aldesleukin). Products are sold to US hospitals and clinics, with Amtagvi approved in the US and Canada.

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