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Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%).

Ingredion transforms corn, tapioca, potato, peas, and other plant materials into starches (~50% of 2025 net sales), sweeteners (~34%), and specialty ingredients for food, beverage, animal nutrition, and industrial markets across 60+ industries worldwide. It operates three... Read more

$112.55+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#12 of 26 Packaged Foods
Stop $108.08Target $114.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$126.57+12.5%7 analysts
$114.15our TP
$112.55price
$126.57mean
$140

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 33%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$7.0B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE18.1%
Rev Growth-2.4%
Beta0.69
Dividend2.94%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.09bearish
IV50%normal
Max Pain$80-28.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfood industry58%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Of our 2025 net sales, approximately 58 percent were generated by sales to the food industry'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jason Payant elected Interim CFO effective April 1, 2026, succeeding James Gray (whose resignation was reported January 27, 2026). Clean handoff with named successor; Payant is VP Finance, Global T&HS.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOW
    Director Gregory Kenny retired effective March 23, 2026 after serving since 2005. Siobhan Talbot elected as new independent director effective April 1, 2026. No disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-27Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO James Gray notified company January 26, 2026 of retirement effective March 31, 2026. No disagreement cited. Company reviewing succession plan; no successor named at time of filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.5
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
6.6
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
4.9
Quality Rank
7.8
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $110.64Resistance $116.48

Price Targets

$108
$114
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.8% upside)
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $108.08. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.15 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $108.08. Stop-loss: $108.08.

What are the risks of investing in INGR?

Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is INGR overvalued or undervalued?

Ingredion Incorporated trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about INGR?

14 analysts cover INGR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $127.

What does Ingredion Incorporated do?Ingredion transforms corn, tapioca, potato, peas, and other plant materials into starches (~50% of 2025 net sales),...

Ingredion transforms corn, tapioca, potato, peas, and other plant materials into starches (~50% of 2025 net sales), sweeteners (~34%), and specialty ingredients for food, beverage, animal nutrition, and industrial markets across 60+ industries worldwide. It operates three segments: Texture & Healthful Solutions (global), F&II-LATAM, and F&II-U.S./Canada. Key customers are food and beverage manufacturers globally.

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