Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%).
Ingredion transforms corn, tapioca, potato, peas, and other plant materials into starches (~50% of 2025 net sales), sweeteners (~34%), and specialty ingredients for food, beverage, animal nutrition, and industrial markets across 60+ industries worldwide. It operates three... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerfood industry58%10-K Item 1A: 'Of our 2025 net sales, approximately 58 percent were generated by sales to the food industry'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02MEDIUMJason Payant elected Interim CFO effective April 1, 2026, succeeding James Gray (whose resignation was reported January 27, 2026). Clean handoff with named successor; Payant is VP Finance, Global T&HS.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOWDirector Gregory Kenny retired effective March 23, 2026 after serving since 2005. Siobhan Talbot elected as new independent director effective April 1, 2026. No disagreements cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-01-27Item 5.02HIGHCFO James Gray notified company January 26, 2026 of retirement effective March 31, 2026. No disagreement cited. Company reviewing succession plan; no successor named at time of filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $112.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $108.08. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $114.15 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $108.08. Stop-loss: $108.08.
Concentration risk — Customer: food industry (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Ingredion Incorporated trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover INGR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $127.
What does Ingredion Incorporated do?Ingredion transforms corn, tapioca, potato, peas, and other plant materials into starches (~50% of 2025 net sales),...
Ingredion transforms corn, tapioca, potato, peas, and other plant materials into starches (~50% of 2025 net sales), sweeteners (~34%), and specialty ingredients for food, beverage, animal nutrition, and industrial markets across 60+ industries worldwide. It operates three segments: Texture & Healthful Solutions (global), F&II-LATAM, and F&II-U.S./Canada. Key customers are food and beverage manufacturers globally.