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Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. At $100.34, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Ingredion is a global ingredient solutions provider with 41 manufacturing facilities across three reportable segments: Texture & Healthful Solutions (global), Food & Industrial Ingredients–LATAM, and Food & Industrial Ingredients–U.S./Canada. It processes corn, tapioca, potato,... Read more

$100.34+5.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#24 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.65%
IncomeYield3.27%(5y avg 2.69%)Payout31.35%sustainable
Stop $96.76Target $106.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$121.86+21.4%7 analysts
$106.02our TP
$100.34price
$121.86mean
$140

Sell if holding. At $100.34, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ingredion Incorporated

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 5, 2026 MEDIUM Item 2.05: Ingredion committed May 1, 2026 to cease operations at its Cabo, Brazil manufacturing facility by June 30, 2026. Expected pre-tax charges of approximately $43M: ~$36M impairment/write-downs and ~$7M cash employee/severance costs. Majority of charges expected Q2 2026.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 36%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth-1.2%
Beta0.63
Dividend3.27%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.06bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$70-30.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Ingredion committed May 1, 2026 to cease operations at its Cabo, Brazil manufacturing facility by June 30, 2026. Expected pre-tax charges of approximately $43M: ~$36M impairment/write-downs and ~$7M cash employee/severance costs. Majority of charges expected Q2 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jason Payant appointed Interim CFO effective April 1, 2026, succeeding James D. Gray who resigned as EVP/CFO effective March 31, 2026. Payant has been with Ingredion since 2012; no permanent CFO named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOW
    Gregory B. Kenny retired from the Board effective March 23, 2026. Siobhán Talbot elected as new independent director effective April 1, 2026. Kenny cited no disagreement with Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.3
Value Rank
5.3
Quality Rank
7.0
Best-in-class margins

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 327.0%
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
14 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $99.75Resistance $116.01

Price Targets

$97
$106
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $100.34, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $96.76. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.02 (+5.7% upside). Prior stop was $96.76. Stop-loss: $96.76.

What are the risks of investing in INGR?

Thin upside margin: 5.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is INGR overvalued or undervalued?

Ingredion Incorporated trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about INGR?

14 analysts cover INGR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $122.

What does Ingredion Incorporated do?Ingredion is a global ingredient solutions provider with 41 manufacturing facilities across three reportable segments:...

Ingredion is a global ingredient solutions provider with 41 manufacturing facilities across three reportable segments: Texture & Healthful Solutions (global), Food & Industrial Ingredients–LATAM, and Food & Industrial Ingredients–U.S./Canada. It processes corn, tapioca, potato, and other plant materials into starches (50% of 2025 net sales) and sweeteners (34%) for food, beverage, brewing, and industrial customers. No single customer exceeded 10% of 2025 net sales.

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