Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
HRMY · Why this verdict
Why Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 15% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.8>=7.5+momentum=5.9>=5.0 exempted
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.05
Upside
+20.4%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.8 and growth 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.05 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Growth at 8.3, and Quality at 7.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Technical at 3.1, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.05 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.