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Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $326.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and... Read more

$326.00+15.0% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#3 of 3 Home Improvement Retail
Stop $311.72Target $375.56(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$408.21+25.2%33 analysts
$375.56our TP
$326.00price
$408.21mean
$454

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $326.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$321.5B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE145.5%
Rev Growth-3.8%
Beta1.08
Dividend2.89%
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$220-32.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.6
Declining revenue: -4%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $315.31Resistance $353.55

Price Targets

$312
$376
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Red flag in news: 'bankruptcy'
! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $326.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $311.72. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.

What is the HD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $375.56 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $311.72. Stop-loss: $311.72.

What are the risks of investing in HD?

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is HD overvalued or undervalued?

Home Depot, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HD?

46 analysts cover HD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $408.

What does Home Depot, Inc. (The) do?We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products,...

We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. As of the end of fiscal 2025, we operated 2,359 stores located throughout the U.S. (including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S.

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