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Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvement Retail

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-19). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $289.57. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $294.00. Engine's entry $289.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and... Read more

$294.00+24.6% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#2 of 3 Home Improvement Retail
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.89%
IncomeYield3.11%(5y avg 2.36%)Payout64.65%
Entry $289.57(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $273.98Target $363.85(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.1:1Setup A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst target$395.48+34.5%33 analysts
$363.85our TP
$294.00price
$395.48mean
$454

Wait for pullback to $289.57. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $294.00. Engine's entry $289.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 29, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Home Depot, Inc. (The)

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$298.6B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE145.5%
Rev Growth-3.8%
Beta1.00
Dividend3.11%
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$220-25.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.6
Declining revenue: -4%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $296.88Resistance $353.55

Price Targets

$274
$290
$364
A.Upside+23.8%
A.R:R4.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HD stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $289.57. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $294.00. Engine's entry $289.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 29, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $363.85 (+23.8%), stop $273.98 (−7.3%), Setup A.R:R 4.6:1. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the HD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $363.85 (+24.6% upside). Target $363.85 (+23.8%), stop $273.98 (−7.3%), Setup A.R:R 4.6:1. Stop-loss: $273.98.

What are the risks of investing in HD?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.1): -1.5.

Is HD overvalued or undervalued?

Home Depot, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HD?

46 analysts cover HD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $395.

What does Home Depot, Inc. (The) do?We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products,...

We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. As of the end of fiscal 2025, we operated 2,359 stores located throughout the U.S. (including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S.

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