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Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.76 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. is a business development company specializing in middle market and mezzanine investment in private companies. It seeks to make capital appreciation through direct originations of secured debt, senior secured debt, junior secured debt, including first... Read more

$9.76-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#89 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $9.35Target $9.67(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$9.13-6.5%4 analysts
$9.67our TP
$9.76price
$9.13mean
$8
$10

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.76 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 37%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.4
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.6%
ROE8.0%
Rev Growth-17.1%
Beta0.63
Dividend14.73%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C12.50bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$3-74.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -17.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
5.1
Declining revenue: -17%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
4.8
Value Rank
7.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
2.3
52w Position
8.4
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.66Resistance $9.87

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GSBD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.76 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $9.35. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GSBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.67 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $9.35. Stop-loss: $9.35.

What are the risks of investing in GSBD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is GSBD overvalued or undervalued?

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GSBD?

10 analysts cover GSBD with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. do?Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. is a business development company specializing in middle market and mezzanine investment in...

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. is a business development company specializing in middle market and mezzanine investment in private companies. It seeks to make capital appreciation through direct originations of secured debt, senior secured debt, junior secured debt, including first lien, first lien/last-out unitranche and second lien debt, unsecured debt, including mezzanine debt and, to a lesser extent, investments in equities. The fund primarily invests in United States. It seeks to invest between $10 million and $75 million in companies with EBITDA between $5 million and $75 million annually.

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