This business development company offers an attractively valued entry point with strong cash conversion and a cheap forward multiple, but a 19% revenue decline, inconsistent earnings execution including a severe recent miss, and a high yield that appears unsupported by fundamentals combine to create a setup where the bear case materially outweighs the valuation appeal.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Headline Valuation→Stable
- Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
- Revenue Decline Structural Risk→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Asset Management
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%).
Goldman Sachs BDC is a closed-end business development company that originates secured first-lien, unitranche, and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with $5 million to $200 million of EBITDA. The company held a $3.26 billion portfolio across 171 portfolio... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
About Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
Goldman Sachs BDC held a $3.26 billion investment portfolio at fair value across 171 middle-market companies as of December 31, 2025, with 96.9% of investments in first-lien secured debt and 94.8% concentrated in U.S. borrowers. The company is regulated by the SEC as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and has originated approximately $9.88 billion in aggregate debt and equity investments since its 2012 formation.
Goldman Sachs BDC generates revenue primarily from interest income on direct originations of first lien, unitranche, and second lien secured debt to U.S. middle-market companies with $5 million to $200 million of EBITDA, supplemented by loan origination fees, dividends on equity co-investments, and capital gains. The portfolio yielded a weighted average 10.5% at fair value as of December 31, 2025, with performing debt 99.4% floating-rate, tying interest income to short-term rate benchmarks. Software, Health Care Providers & Services, and Health Care Technology were the three largest industry exposures, at 17.6%, 8.8%, and 8.4% of the portfolio, respectively, spread across 40 industries and 171 portfolio companies. Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM), a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., serves as the external Investment Adviser and directs origination through its Private Credit Team, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. itself owned 5.8% of the company's common stock as of December 31, 2025.
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Beyond headline yield, portfolio credit quality carries its own concentration signal: borrowers carry a weighted average net debt-to-EBITDA of 5.9x against median EBITDA of $71.75 million, with interest coverage of just 2.0x as of December 31, 2025. Because these companies are privately held and thinly traded, Goldman Sachs BDC's Private Credit Investment Committee marks the portfolio to fair value using inputs that are inherently subjective, so a downturn compressing interest coverage below 2.0x across a meaningful share of the 171 portfolio companies could pressure both realized credit losses and reported net asset value simultaneously.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings Preview: GSBD to Report Financial Results Post-market on November 05 - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 31, 2026 neutral
- NEWS GSBD Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 80.13M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Which 4 Rate-Sensitive Stocks Moved Pre-Fed: Wheeler (NASDAQ:WHLR), Goldman Sachs BDC (NYSE:GSBD), Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOO — Kalkine Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Why Did Goldman Sachs BDC (NYSE:GSBD) Surge 17.65% in Pre-Market Trading on October 28? - Kalkine — Kalkine Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The geographic composition of our portfolio at fair value as of December 31, 2025 was primarily 94.8% in the United States, 3.2% in Canada, 1.5% in the United Kingdom and 0.5% in India.'
- LOWProductSoftware18%10-K Item 1: 'The largest industries in our portfolio, based on fair value as of December 31, 2025, were Software, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, which represented 17.6%, 8.8% and 8.4%, respectively, of our portfolio at fair value.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyInvestment Adviser (GSAM)10-K Item 1A: 'We depend upon management personnel of our Investment Adviser for our future success.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $7.60 reached (−15.0%), stop $8.54 (−4.7%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $7.60 reached (−15.0% from $8.94); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $7.60 reached (−15.0%), stop $8.54 (−4.7%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Stop-loss: $8.54.
Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts rate GSBD, with a consensus score of 2.3/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $9.
What does Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. do?Goldman Sachs BDC is a closed-end business development company that originates secured first-lien, unitranche, and...
Goldman Sachs BDC is a closed-end business development company that originates secured first-lien, unitranche, and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with $5 million to $200 million of EBITDA. The company held a $3.26 billion portfolio across 171 portfolio companies as of December 31, 2025, earning interest income at a 10.5% weighted average yield, managed externally by Goldman Sachs Asset Management.