This business development company offers an attractively valued entry point with strong cash conversion and a cheap forward multiple, but a 19% revenue decline, inconsistent earnings execution including a severe recent miss, and a high yield that appears unsupported by fundamentals combine to create a setup where the bear case materially outweighs the valuation appeal.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Headline Valuation→Stable
- Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
- Revenue Decline Structural Risk→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $9.18, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%).
Goldman Sachs BDC is a closed-end business development company that originates secured first-lien, unitranche, and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with $5 million to $200 million of EBITDA. The company held a $3.26 billion portfolio across 171 portfolio... Read more
Sell if holding. At $9.18, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
About Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
Goldman Sachs BDC held a $3.26 billion investment portfolio at fair value across 171 middle-market companies as of December 31, 2025, with 96.9% of investments in first-lien secured debt and 94.8% concentrated in U.S. borrowers. The company is regulated by the SEC as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and has originated approximately $9.88 billion in aggregate debt and equity investments since its 2012 formation.
Goldman Sachs BDC generates revenue primarily from interest income on direct originations of first lien, unitranche, and second lien secured debt to U.S. middle-market companies with $5 million to $200 million of EBITDA, supplemented by loan origination fees, dividends on equity co-investments, and capital gains. The portfolio yielded a weighted average 10.5% at fair value as of December 31, 2025, with performing debt 99.4% floating-rate, tying interest income to short-term rate benchmarks. Software, Health Care Providers & Services, and Health Care Technology were the three largest industry exposures, at 17.6%, 8.8%, and 8.4% of the portfolio, respectively, spread across 40 industries and 171 portfolio companies. Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM), a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., serves as the external Investment Adviser and directs origination through its Private Credit Team, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. itself owned 5.8% of the company's common stock as of December 31, 2025.
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Beyond headline yield, portfolio credit quality carries its own concentration signal: borrowers carry a weighted average net debt-to-EBITDA of 5.9x against median EBITDA of $71.75 million, with interest coverage of just 2.0x as of December 31, 2025. Because these companies are privately held and thinly traded, Goldman Sachs BDC's Private Credit Investment Committee marks the portfolio to fair value using inputs that are inherently subjective, so a downturn compressing interest coverage below 2.0x across a meaningful share of the 171 portfolio companies could pressure both realized credit losses and reported net asset value simultaneously.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sage Rhino Capital LLC Boosts Stock Holdings in Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. $GSBD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Earnings Preview: GSBD to Report Financial Results Post-market on May 07 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: GSBD to Report Financial Results Post-market on May 07 - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs BDC And Ares Capital Both Held Their Dividends, But Only One Is Earning It — benzinga Jun 1, 2026
- NEWS The High-Yield Stocks the Smart Money Is Buying Right Now — benzinga May 24, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The geographic composition of our portfolio at fair value as of December 31, 2025 was primarily 94.8% in the United States, 3.2% in Canada, 1.5% in the United Kingdom and 0.5% in India.'
- LOWProductSoftware18%10-K Item 1: 'The largest industries in our portfolio, based on fair value as of December 31, 2025, were Software, Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Technology, which represented 17.6%, 8.8% and 8.4%, respectively, of our portfolio at fair value.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyInvestment Adviser (GSAM)10-K Item 1A: 'We depend upon management personnel of our Investment Adviser for our future success.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $9.18, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $8.76. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $9.59 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $8.76. Stop-loss: $8.76.
Single-region cliff: 95% exposure to United States (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (94.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover GSBD with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $9.
What does Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. do?Goldman Sachs BDC is a closed-end business development company that originates secured first-lien, unitranche, and...
Goldman Sachs BDC is a closed-end business development company that originates secured first-lien, unitranche, and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with $5 million to $200 million of EBITDA. The company held a $3.26 billion portfolio across 171 portfolio companies as of December 31, 2025, earning interest income at a 10.5% weighted average yield, managed externally by Goldman Sachs Asset Management.