Groupon's setup is deteriorating across several engine checks: quality sits right at the minimum floor, the technical setup shows late-cycle overbought distribution risk, the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative modeled risk/reward, and short interest remains elevated - together consistent with the recommendation to exit the position.
Thesis pillars
- Quality At The Floor Threshold↓Deteriorating
- Late Cycle Overbought Momentum↑Improving
- Negative Asymmetry Gate Failure→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.90: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 47%; Below-average business quality.
Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace through our mobile applications and our websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. We operate in two segments, North... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.90: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 47%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — Groupon, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Groupon Stock Climbs Monday: What's Driving the Action? — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Groupon Stock Moves Higher on Q2 EPS Beat — Details — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Groupon Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $513.000M-$523.000M vs $520.254M Est — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 negative
- NEWS Groupon Sees Q3 Sales $128.000M-$130.000M vs $131.900M Est — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 negative
- NEWS Groupon Q2 EPS $(0.04) Beats $(0.09) Estimate, Sales $124.675M Miss $127.094M Estimate — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-09-23T17:57:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-08Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, Groupon, Inc.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.90: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 47%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.51. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.07 (+31.0% upside). Prior stop was $18.51. Stop-loss: $18.51.
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).
Groupon, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover GRPN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $31.
What does Groupon, Inc. do?Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace...
Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace through our mobile applications and our websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. We operate in two segments, North America and International, and in three categories, Local, Goods and Travel. See Item 8, Note 19, Segment and Geographical Information, for additional information.