Groupon's setup is deteriorating across several engine checks: quality sits right at the minimum floor, the technical setup shows late-cycle overbought distribution risk, the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative modeled risk/reward, and short interest remains elevated - together consistent with the recommendation to exit the position.
Thesis pillars
- Quality At The Floor Threshold↓Deteriorating
- Late Cycle Overbought Momentum↓Deteriorating
- Negative Asymmetry Gate Failure→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.03: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 54%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace through our mobile applications and our websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. We operate in two segments, North... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.03: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 54%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-24Recent Developments — Groupon, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Jun 8, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, Groupon, Inc.
Generated 2026-07-08T23:53:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-08Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, Groupon, Inc.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-26Item 2.05MEDIUMCosts Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of Groupon, Inc.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUMGroupon, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) | | | | Delaware | | 27-0903295 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) | | (I.R.S.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.03: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 54%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.21. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.02 (-14.0% upside). Prior stop was $24.21. Stop-loss: $24.21.
Target reached (-14.0% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).
Groupon, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover GRPN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $26.
What does Groupon, Inc. do?Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace...
Groupon is a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Consumers access our marketplace through our mobile applications and our websites, which are primarily localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. We operate in two segments, North America and International, and in three categories, Local, Goods and Travel. See Item 8, Note 19, Segment and Geographical Information, for additional information.