MediaAlpha screens statistically cheap with a strong earnings beat record, but extreme insider selling and an overbought, late-cycle momentum reading argue for caution at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation↑Improving
- Extreme Insider Selling→Stable
- Overbought Late Cycle Momentum↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026· older than 90 days
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.78 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away).
MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners) with high-intent consumers sourced through publisher websites (Supply Partners), mainly in property & casualty, health, and life insurance. The company earns a fee... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.78 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 113d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About MediaAlpha, Inc.
About MediaAlpha, Inc.
MediaAlpha generated $1.1 billion of revenue and $2.2 billion of Transaction Value in 2025 (up 28.8% and 44.5%, respectively) by connecting insurance carriers and distributors with high-intent consumers across roughly 141 million Consumer Referrals. The property & casualty insurance vertical alone accounted for 90.1% of total 2025 revenue, up from 76.1% in 2024, while the platform served over 1,050 total insurance partners and 700-plus Demand Partners across its Open and Private Marketplace models.
MediaAlpha earns a fee each time a click, call, or lead is transacted between a Demand Partner and a Supply Partner, with clicks representing 90.1% of 2025 Transaction Value, up from 84.1% in 2024. Partner retention is strong, with 99% of 2025 Transaction Value coming from Demand Partner relationships that existed in 2024, though the company also operates a lower-margin Private Marketplace model that some partners migrate to once their volume with each other reaches scale, which can compress net revenue and profit margins. MediaAlpha competes against direct-distribution insurance companies, insurance-focused research portals, internet search and advertising platforms, and Supply Partners' own in-house sales forces. In October 2025, a Consent Order resolving FTC allegations of misleading advertising and telemarketing practices took effect, requiring a $45.0 million payment and new compliance processes, and Transaction Value in the company's under-65 health insurance subvertical fell $79 million year over year as certain partners were terminated or declined to comply.
Show full overview
MediaAlpha's revenue is concentrated among a small number of Demand Partners: its largest single partner accounted for 25% of 2025 revenue and its second-largest another 24%, while the top 20 Demand Partners combined made up 82% of revenue, up sharply from 72% in 2024. Most partner agreements carry no minimum volume commitment and are cancellable on 30 to 60 days' notice, so the loss of even one of these top-two accounts - which together approach half of total revenue - could move results materially in a single quarter, a risk the 10-K explicitly flags as heightened credit exposure alongside the ordinary demand risk from insurance underwriting cycles.
See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
From MediaAlpha, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — MediaAlpha, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MediaAlpha (MAX) director Eugene Nonko sells $354,714 in shares By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MediaAlpha (MAX) director Eugene Nonko sells $354,714 in shares By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS MediaAlpha (MAX) director Eugene Nonko sells $354,714 in shares By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MediaAlpha Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Benzinga — Benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MediaAlpha (NYSE:MAX) beats expectations in strong Q3 2026, stock jumps 18% - StockStory — StockStory Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-03T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.78 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.75. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $13.67 reached (−7.5% from $14.78); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $13.75. Stop-loss: $13.75.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
MediaAlpha, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate MAX, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $16.
What does MediaAlpha, Inc. do?MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners)...
MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners) with high-intent consumers sourced through publisher websites (Supply Partners), mainly in property & casualty, health, and life insurance. The company earns a fee on each Consumer Referral transacted, generating $1.1 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in Transaction Value in 2025, with the P&C insurance vertical alone accounting for 90.1% of total revenue. MediaAlpha's top 20 Demand Partners represented 82% of 2025 revenue, reflecting significant customer concentration in a mar