MediaAlpha screens statistically cheap with a strong earnings beat record, but extreme insider selling and an overbought, late-cycle momentum reading argue for caution at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation↑Improving
- Extreme Insider Selling→Stable
- Overbought Late Cycle Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.39: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality.
MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners) with high-intent consumers sourced through publisher websites (Supply Partners), mainly in property & casualty, health, and life insurance. The company earns a fee... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.39: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 11, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About MediaAlpha, Inc.
About MediaAlpha, Inc.
MediaAlpha generated $1.1 billion of revenue and $2.2 billion of Transaction Value in 2025 (up 28.8% and 44.5%, respectively) by connecting insurance carriers and distributors with high-intent consumers across roughly 141 million Consumer Referrals. The property & casualty insurance vertical alone accounted for 90.1% of total 2025 revenue, up from 76.1% in 2024, while the platform served over 1,050 total insurance partners and 700-plus Demand Partners across its Open and Private Marketplace models.
MediaAlpha earns a fee each time a click, call, or lead is transacted between a Demand Partner and a Supply Partner, with clicks representing 90.1% of 2025 Transaction Value, up from 84.1% in 2024. Partner retention is strong, with 99% of 2025 Transaction Value coming from Demand Partner relationships that existed in 2024, though the company also operates a lower-margin Private Marketplace model that some partners migrate to once their volume with each other reaches scale, which can compress net revenue and profit margins. MediaAlpha competes against direct-distribution insurance companies, insurance-focused research portals, internet search and advertising platforms, and Supply Partners' own in-house sales forces. In October 2025, a Consent Order resolving FTC allegations of misleading advertising and telemarketing practices took effect, requiring a $45.0 million payment and new compliance processes, and Transaction Value in the company's under-65 health insurance subvertical fell $79 million year over year as certain partners were terminated or declined to comply.
Show full overview
MediaAlpha's revenue is concentrated among a small number of Demand Partners: its largest single partner accounted for 25% of 2025 revenue and its second-largest another 24%, while the top 20 Demand Partners combined made up 82% of revenue, up sharply from 72% in 2024. Most partner agreements carry no minimum volume commitment and are cancellable on 30 to 60 days' notice, so the loss of even one of these top-two accounts - which together approach half of total revenue - could move results materially in a single quarter, a risk the 10-K explicitly flags as heightened credit exposure alongside the ordinary demand risk from insurance underwriting cycles.
See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
From MediaAlpha, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — MediaAlpha, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MediaAlpha (NYSE: MAX) director sells 43,428 shares under 10b5-1 plan - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS MediaAlpha (NYSE: MAX) director sells 43,428 shares under 10b5-1 plan - stocktitan.net — stocktitan.net negative
- NEWS MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS MediaAlpha (NYSE:MAX) Reports Upbeat Q2 CY2026, Guides for Strong Sales Next Quarter - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Mediaalpha Inc (MAX) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-09-24T04:36:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Volatile — 6.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.39: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 11, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $9.01. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $13.42 (+42.9% upside). Prior stop was $9.01. Stop-loss: $9.01.
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).
MediaAlpha, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.7 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover MAX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $15.
What does MediaAlpha, Inc. do?MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners)...
MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners) with high-intent consumers sourced through publisher websites (Supply Partners), mainly in property & casualty, health, and life insurance. The company earns a fee on each Consumer Referral transacted, generating $1.1 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in Transaction Value in 2025, with the P&C insurance vertical alone accounting for 90.1% of total revenue. MediaAlpha's top 20 Demand Partners represented 82% of 2025 revenue, reflecting significant customer concentration in a mar