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FRBAFirst BankHold5.1·$17.57
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Bank offers an attractive valuation and continuing price momentum, but declining revenue and a negative risk/reward skew after reaching its analyst target temper the near-term upside case.

Thesis pillars

  • Declining Revenue Quality ConcernStable
  • Valuation SupportStable
  • Momentum ContinuationDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Bank (FRBA) Stock Analysis

HoldValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

First Bank provides various banking products and services to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. It accepts various deposits, including non-interest- and interest-bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit, as well... Read more

$17.57-3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#206 of 221 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.86%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout17.54%sustainable
Stop $16.83Target $18.03(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$20.00+13.8%3 analysts
$18.03our TP
$17.57price
$20.00mean
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Margin of safety: 31%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$439M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.52
Dividend1.86%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Earnings Growth
3.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.3
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.5
Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.09Resistance $18.40

Price Targets

$17
$18
A.Upside-3.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRBA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $18.03 (+2.6%), stop $16.83 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.03 (-3.2% upside). Target $18.03 (+2.6%), stop $16.83 (−4.4%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $16.83.

What are the risks of investing in FRBA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Weak growth.

Is FRBA overvalued or undervalued?

First Bank trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FRBA?

9 analysts cover FRBA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does First Bank do?First Bank provides various banking products and services to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. It accepts...

First Bank provides various banking products and services to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. It accepts various deposits, including non-interest- and interest-bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit, as well as commercial checking and cash management accounts. The company also offers various loan products, such as commercial and industrial loans, which include line of credit, inventory, equipment, and short-term working capital financing; commercial real estate loans comprising owner-occupied, investor, construction and development, and multi-family loans; residential mortgages loans, home equity loans, and revolving lines of credit; and consumer and other loans, such as auto, personal, traditional installment, and other loans. In addition, it provides digital banking services, including online, mobile, telephone banking; ATM and debit cards, and wire and ACH transfer services; remote deposit capture; and cash management services, as well as engages in the capital markets activities. The company operates full-service branches in Cinnaminson, Delanco, Denville, Ewing, Fairfield, Flemington, Hamilton, Lawrenceville, Monroe, Morristown, Oceanport, Pennington, Randolph, Somerset, Trenton, Williamstown, New Jersey; Devon, Doylestown, Lionville, Malvern, Media, Paoli, Trevose, Warminster, and West Chester, Pennsylvania; and Wellington, Florida. First Bank was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hamilton, New Jersey.

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