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FRBAFirst BankSell5.0·$17.98+2.80%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Bank offers an attractive valuation and continuing price momentum, but declining revenue and a negative risk/reward skew after reaching its analyst target temper the near-term upside case.

Thesis pillars

  • Declining Revenue Quality ConcernImproving
  • Valuation SupportImproving
  • Momentum ContinuationImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Bank (FRBA) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.98 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away).

First Bank provides various banking products and services to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. It accepts various deposits, including non-interest- and interest-bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit, as well... Read more

$17.98-16.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#214 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.73%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout16.17%sustainable
Stop $16.84Target $18.08(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$17.67-1.7%3 analysts
$18.08our TP
$17.98price
$17.67mean
$16
$19

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.98 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 31%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.5% away)
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$438M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.4%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth-5.2%
Beta0.53
Dividend1.73%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV82%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -5.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Earnings Growth
3.5
Declining revenue: -5%
GatesA.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.75Resistance $18.45

Price Targets

$17
$18
A.Upside-16.5%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.98 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.84. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.08 (-16.5% upside). Prior stop was $16.84. Stop-loss: $16.84.

What are the risks of investing in FRBA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is FRBA overvalued or undervalued?

First Bank trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FRBA?

9 analysts cover FRBA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does First Bank do?First Bank provides various banking products and services to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. It accepts...

First Bank provides various banking products and services to small and mid-sized businesses and individuals. It accepts various deposits, including non-interest- and interest-bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit, as well as commercial checking and cash management accounts. The company also offers various loan products, such as commercial and industrial loans, which include line of credit, inventory, equipment, and short-term working capital financing; commercial real estate loans comprising owner-occupied, investor, construction and development, and multi-family loans; residential mortgages loans, home equity loans, and revolving lines of credit; and consumer and other loans, such as auto, personal, traditional installment, and other loans. In addition, it provides digital banking services, including online, mobile, telephone banking; ATM and debit cards, and wire and ACH transfer services; remote deposit capture; and cash management services, as well as engages in the capital markets activities. The company operates full-service branches in Cinnaminson, Delanco, Denville, Ewing, Fairfield, Flemington, Hamilton, Lawrenceville, Monroe, Morristown, Oceanport, Pennington, Randolph, Somerset, Trenton, Williamstown, New Jersey; Devon, Doylestown, Lionville, Malvern, Media, Paoli, Trevose, Warminster, and West Chester, Pennsylvania; and Wellington, Florida. First Bank was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hamilton, New Jersey.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc.) · NBBK (NB Bancorp, Inc.) · NBN (Northeast Bank)
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