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FINVFinVolution GroupSell5.8·$4.83-3.40%
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FinVolution Group (FINV) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $4.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth.

FinVolution Group, an investment holding company, operates in the online consumer finance industry in the People's Republic of China, Indonesia, Philippines, and internationally. It operates an online consumer finance platform through its ppdai.com and PPDai mobile application;... Read more

$4.83+31.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#21 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield124.37%
IncomeYield6.12%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout23.97%sustainable
Stop $4.49Target $6.35(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$7.30+51.1%7 analysts
$6.35our TP
$4.83price
$7.30mean
$9

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $4.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 73%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.0
P/E (Fwd)3.4
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA-0.7
Profit Mgn16.6%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth-7.8%
Beta0.37
Dividend6.12%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV110%elevated
Max Pain$10+107.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -7.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.6
Earnings Growth
6.0
Declining revenue: -8%
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.35Resistance $5.87

Price Targets

$4
$6
A.Upside+31.5%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FINV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $4.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $4.49. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FINV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.35 (+31.5% upside). Prior stop was $4.49. Stop-loss: $4.49.

What are the risks of investing in FINV?

Leverage penalty (D/E 8.3): -1.5; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is FINV overvalued or undervalued?

FinVolution Group trades at a P/E of 4.0 (forward 3.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FINV?

13 analysts cover FINV with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $7.

What does FinVolution Group do?FinVolution Group, an investment holding company, operates in the online consumer finance industry in the People's...

FinVolution Group, an investment holding company, operates in the online consumer finance industry in the People's Republic of China, Indonesia, Philippines, and internationally. It operates an online consumer finance platform through its ppdai.com and PPDai mobile application; AdaKami, an online loan platform; and JuanHand for lending and other personalized financial services. The company was formerly known as PPDAI Group Inc. and changed its name to FinVolution Group in November 2019. FinVolution Group was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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