Clearway Energy converts revenue to free cash flow at a rate roughly 10 times its reported net income, but three earnings misses in the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 33.5%, a dividend flagged as potentially unsafe, and concentrated commodity and counterparty exposure keep the risk profile elevated despite a modest headline valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Erratic Earnings Delivery Three Misses↓Deteriorating
- Dividend Yield Trap Safety Concern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Renewable
Sell if holding. At $35.71, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: renewable energy and storage assets (98.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: CEG.
Clearway Energy owns and operates approximately 12.9 GW of clean energy and flexible generation assets across 27 states, with 98% of 2025 generation attributable to renewable energy and storage. The company generates $1,429 million in annual revenue predominantly from long-term... Read more
Sell if holding. At $35.71, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: renewable energy and storage assets (98.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: CEG. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Clearway Energy, Inc.
About Clearway Energy, Inc.
Clearway Energy generated $1,429 million of total operating revenue in 2025, with the Renewables & Storage segment contributing $1,138 million and Flexible Generation $291 million, across approximately 12.9 GW of gross capacity in 27 states. Renewable energy and storage assets accounted for 98% of 2025 generation; the Renewables & Storage segment's offtake agreements carried a weighted-average remaining duration of approximately 12 years based on CAFD.
SCE and PG&E are the two largest offtake counterparties, representing 22% and 16% of total consolidated revenues in 2025, respectively, reflecting the California-heavy nature of the contracted renewable portfolio. The Flexible Generation segment operates dispatchable combustion-based assets that provide grid reliability services but must procure their own fuel, exposing those assets to natural gas supply and price variability. Growth capital is funded through external debt and equity issuances rather than retained cash, as the company distributes a significant portion of CAFD each quarter. Sponsor CEG (Clearway Energy Group LLC) controls the company through its Class B and Class D stock and supplies asset management, procurement, construction and development pipeline services under a Master Services Agreement; CEG owned 41.38% of Clearway Energy LLC's economic interests at December 31, 2025. The weighted-average Moody's rating of rated offtake counterparties was Baa1 based on rated capacity under contract.
Show full overview
California utility offtake—where SCE and PG&E are the company's two largest contracted counterparties—poses a material concentration risk: the 10-K notes revenues and cash flows may be materially impaired if either counterparty fails to perform or terminates agreements early. Federal tax legislation enacted July 4, 2025 added new sunset conditions for ITC/PTC qualification, requiring wind and solar facilities commencing construction after July 4, 2026 to be placed in service by December 31, 2027—constraining the CEG-supplied development pipeline and potentially limiting future acquisition opportunities.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Renewable
From Clearway Energy, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — Clearway Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Deutsche Bank Adjusts Clearway Energy Price Target to $40 From $41, Maintains Buy Rating — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Clearway Energy, Inc. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:CWEN) 2026-08-06 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Aug 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Clearway Energy (NYSE:CWEN) Releases Quarterly Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Clearway Energy (CWEN) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Aug 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Clearway Energy (CWEN) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com Aug 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerSCE22%10-K Item 1A: 'the largest customers...were SCE and PG&E, which represented 22% and 16%, respectively, of total consolidated revenues generated by the Company during the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- LOWCustomerPG&E16%10-K Item 1A: 'the largest customers...were SCE and PG&E, which represented 22% and 16%, respectively, of total consolidated revenues generated by the Company during the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHCommodityrenewable energy and storage assets98%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, 98% of the Company's total generation was attributable to renewable energy and storage assets.'
- HIGHcounterpartyCEG10-K Item 1A: 'CEG exercises substantial influence over the Company, and the Company is highly dependent on CEG.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Kevin P. Malcarney will retire June 1, 2026. Transition services agreement through June 26, 2026; separation benefits include lump-sum of approximately $711,845 plus continued equity vesting. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $35.71, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: renewable energy and storage assets (98.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: CEG. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $33.69. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $35.11 reached (−1.7% from $35.71); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $33.69. Stop-loss: $33.69.
Concentration risk — Commodity: renewable energy and storage assets (98.0%); Concentration risk — Counterparty: CEG; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Clearway Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.4 (forward 22.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts rate CWEN, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $40.
What does Clearway Energy, Inc. do?Clearway Energy owns and operates approximately 12.9 GW of clean energy and flexible generation assets across 27...
Clearway Energy owns and operates approximately 12.9 GW of clean energy and flexible generation assets across 27 states, with 98% of 2025 generation attributable to renewable energy and storage. The company generates $1,429 million in annual revenue predominantly from long-term offtake contracts with investment-grade utilities, including SCE and PG&E as its two largest customers.