Criteo combines a 40% margin of safety, a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, and strong cash conversion with a confirmed technical downtrend and early value-trap signals from declining revenue and margin compression, leaving the position a hold rather than an add.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Margin Of Safety→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Cash Conversion Quality Strength→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Wait for pullback to $14.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $14.65. Engine's entry $14.25 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.
Criteo operates a Commerce Intelligence Platform that connects brands, retailers, and media owners to shoppers through AI-driven advertising, serving roughly 17,000 clients across Performance Media and Retail Media segments. The company powered more than $39 billion in commerce... Read more
Wait for pullback to $14.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $14.65. Engine's entry $14.25 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Criteo S.A.
About Criteo S.A.
Criteo's Commerce Intelligence Platform powered over $39 billion in commerce outcomes and activated more than $4.3 billion of media spend in 2025, delivering 2 trillion targeted ads across roughly 17,000 clients worldwide. The Paris-based ad-tech company operates two segments, Performance Media and Retail Media, and reported average client retention near 90% in each of the last three years.
Criteo earns revenue by matching advertiser and retailer demand to shopper intent using a commerce data set that normalizes more than 5 billion SKUs and reaches roughly 740 million daily active users through direct media-owner integrations, supplemented by more than 3 billion daily active users via social-network partnerships. Performance Media serves brands and agencies through the managed-service Commerce Growth and self-service GO products, while Retail Media's Commerce Max and Commerce Yield tools let retailers monetize on-site and off-site inventory. The company's customer base is diversified — its largest 10 clients represented 19.5% of 2025 revenue in the aggregate — though certain individual markets and solutions depend on a smaller number of clients for a substantial share of revenue in those areas.
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Criteo positions itself against Amazon's dominance of U.S. retail media, where the company estimates roughly 75% of ad spend concentrates on the single platform, framing independent retail media networks like its own as the beneficiary as brands diversify beyond Amazon. Separately, on October 29, 2025 Criteo announced plans to convert its legal domicile from France to Luxembourg, with a shareholder vote scheduled for February 27, 2026 and an intended subsequent move to the United States, a multi-step corporate restructuring distinct from its underlying commerce-data business.
See also: Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
From Criteo S.A.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — Criteo S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS CRTO Looks 23.2% Undervalued on GF Value™ - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS CRITEO TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS ON AUGUST 5, 2026 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS Criteo S A : Massmart Accelerates Retail Media Offering in South Africa with Criteo - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Slips 2.42% to $14.12 as Shares Test Lower Support Zone - Virgin POC - https://www.siam.in/ — https://www.siam.in/ negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo cuts Criteo stock price target on FX headwinds - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
Generated 2026-11-02T11:43:19Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $14.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $14.65. Engine's entry $14.25 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $17.44 (+19.0%), stop $13.53 (−8.3%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.44 (+19.1% upside). Target $17.44 (+19.0%), stop $13.53 (−8.3%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $13.53.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Negative momentum.
Criteo S.A. trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 3.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
18 analysts cover CRTO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $20.
What does Criteo S.A. do?Criteo operates a Commerce Intelligence Platform that connects brands, retailers, and media owners to shoppers through...
Criteo operates a Commerce Intelligence Platform that connects brands, retailers, and media owners to shoppers through AI-driven advertising, serving roughly 17,000 clients across Performance Media and Retail Media segments. The company powered more than $39 billion in commerce outcomes and activated over $4.3 billion in media spend in 2025, with its top 10 clients representing 19.5% of that year's revenue.