Cresud shows insider buying conviction, a 63% margin of safety, and improving Piotroski quality trends, set against a severe expected earnings decline and a confirmed cyclical-trap valuation warning.
Thesis pillars
- Margin Of Safety Valuation→Stable
- Insider Buying Conviction↓Deteriorating
- Cyclical Earnings Trough Risk↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. (CRESY) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Conglomerates
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings expected to decline ~97% (cyclical peak).
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria, an agricultural company, engages in the production of agricultural commodities in Brazil and other Latin American countries. The company operates through Agricultural Business, and Business Urban... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings expected to decline ~97% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $10.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings expected to decline ~97% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.17. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $13.18 (+24.3% upside). Prior stop was $10.17. Stop-loss: $10.17.
Earnings expected to decline ~97% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.5/10.
Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 159.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover CRESY with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $16.
What does Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. do?Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria, an agricultural company, engages in the...
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria, an agricultural company, engages in the production of agricultural commodities in Brazil and other Latin American countries. The company operates through Agricultural Business, and Business Urban Properties and Investments segments. It is also involved in the management, development, and ownership of shopping malls, office buildings, and hotels; sale of grain derivatives, such as flour and oil; production and sale of crops, such as soybean, sugarcane, wheat, corn, oilseed, and sunflower, as well as sorghum and peanuts; and breeding, purchasing, and/or fattening of cattle for sale to slaughterhouses and supermarkets. In addition, it leases its farms to third parties for agriculture, cattle breeding, and seed production; and offers agricultural services. The company was incorporated in 1936 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.