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COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.Sell5.0·$31.91+2.41%
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Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.91: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage precision oncology biotech whose entire value is concentrated in bezuclastinib, a selective KIT D816V inhibitor targeting systemic mastocytosis and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). NDAs were submitted for NonAdvSM (Dec 2025) and GIST... Read more

$31.91+48.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#95 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3.14%
Stop $29.94Target $47.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.0:1
Analyst target$54.25+70.0%12 analysts
$47.20our TP
$31.91price
$54.25mean
$72

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.91: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: bezuclastinib
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-32.6
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA-13.2
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-85.7%
Rev Growth
Beta0.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV87%elevated
Max Pain$29-9.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelinebezuclastinib
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is highly dependent on the success of our bezuclastinib program and our ability to discover and develop additional product candidates.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 5.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.87Resistance $35.95

Price Targets

$30
$47
A.Upside+47.9%
A.R:R5.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.91: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $29.94. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.20 (+48.0% upside). Prior stop was $29.94. Stop-loss: $29.94.

What are the risks of investing in COGT?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: bezuclastinib; Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.10% of cap).

Is COGT overvalued or undervalued?

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -32.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COGT?

19 analysts cover COGT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Cogent Biosciences, Inc. do?Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage precision oncology biotech whose entire value is concentrated in bezuclastinib,...

Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage precision oncology biotech whose entire value is concentrated in bezuclastinib, a selective KIT D816V inhibitor targeting systemic mastocytosis and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). NDAs were submitted for NonAdvSM (Dec 2025) and GIST (Jan-Apr 2026) with a PDUFA date of July 11, 2026 for GIST; commercial launch expected second half 2026 pending FDA approval.

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