Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the COGT stock price target?

Take-profit $47.20 (+48.5% upside). Prior stop was $30.73.

Q: What are the risks of investing in COGT?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: bezuclastinib; Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.29% of cap); Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.29% of cap).

Q: Is COGT overvalued or undervalued?

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about COGT?

19 analysts cover COGT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $54.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2 days ago (May 18, 2026, 11:26 AM ET)

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage precision oncology biotech whose entire value is concentrated in bezuclastinib, a selective KIT D816V inhibitor targeting systemic mastocytosis and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). NDAs were submitted for NonAdvSM (Dec 2025) and GIST... Read more

$31.80+48.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#95 of 157 Biotechnology

QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3.00%

Stop $30.73Target $47.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.6:1

Analyst target$54.25+70.6%12 analysts

$47.20our TP

$31.80price

$54.25mean

$72

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.80: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Cogent Biosciences, Inc.

Latest news

HC Wainwright & Co. Maintains Buy on Cogent Biosciences, Raises Price Target to $55 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
Cogent Biosciences Q1 EPS $(0.53) Beats $(0.56) Estimate — benzinga May 5, 2026 positive
Cogent Biosciences Announces That Results From Its Phase 3 PEAK Trial Have Been Selected For Oral Presentation At The 20 — benzinga Apr 21, 2026 positive
Cogent Biosciences Announces Poster Presentations Of Preclinical Data From The KRAS And ErbB2 Pipeline Programs At The A — benzinga Apr 17, 2026 positive

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Pipeline: bezuclastinib

Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.29% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-34.8

Mkt Cap$5.6B

EV/EBITDA-14.0

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-85.7%

Rev Growth—

Beta0.37

DividendNone

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHpipelinebezuclastinib
10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is highly dependent on the success of our bezuclastinib program and our ability to discover and develop additional product candidates.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.015%1.35

Quality1.515%0.22

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.710%0.27

Sentiment8.010%0.80

Insider Activity3.510%0.35

Peer Rank2.610%0.26

Technical Setup8.15%0.41

Risk Profile6.45%0.32

Catalyst4.95%0.25

Overall (Σ contributions)4.98

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Moat

4.0

Piotroski F

4.4

Current Ratio

5.0

Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.2

Value Rank

5.0

Growth Rank

5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

8.6

Oversold in uptrend (RSI 21)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

21 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.68Resistance $37.55

Price Targets

$31

$47

A.Upside+48.4%

A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.29% of cap)

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-08-04 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is COGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.80: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 5.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.73. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.20 (+48.5% upside). Prior stop was $30.73. Stop-loss: $30.73.

What are the risks of investing in COGT?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: bezuclastinib; Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.29% of cap).

Is COGT overvalued or undervalued?

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COGT?

19 analysts cover COGT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Cogent Biosciences, Inc. do?Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage precision oncology biotech whose entire value is concentrated in bezuclastinib,...