Value
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.4x
- ▸Attractively valued
CMRE · Why this verdict
Why Costamare (CMRE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Costamare trades at a forward P/E of 5.9x with 40% operating margins and earnings estimates that have risen 85.9% in 30 days, offering 9.3% upside to the consensus target with a 2.3-to-1 risk/reward in your favor; the primary offset is a free-cash-flow conversion rate of only 42% of net income and a revenue trend that has turned negative at -5%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 5.9x combined with 40% operating margins and strong absolute scores on both price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios places the stock in attractively-valued territory, offering meaningful headroom relative to intrinsic value even at current depressed freight market pricing. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap closes and the stock appreciates toward the $17.85 consensus target within 12 months as the discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping companies routinely trade at low multiples because the cycle amplifies earnings volatility; the 5.9x forward P/E may reflect a market consensus that cycle-peak earnings are unsustainable rather than genuine undervaluation. | ||
Analyst consensus earnings estimates have risen 85.9% over the past 30 days — one of the largest short-window upward estimate revisions observable — and the most recent sentiment proxy confirms this as a material positive shift in the market's fundamental outlook for the business. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings estimates continue to rise or remain at elevated levels over the next two quarters, and the next reported quarter delivers a positive EPS surprise that validates the upward revision. | →Stable |
| CounterA sharp 30-day revision of this magnitude can overshoot; if it reflects a temporary spot-rate spike rather than a durable improvement in contracted revenue, estimates could reverse as sharply as they rose. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 42% of net income — a red-flag level of cash conversion — and revenue has declined 5%, together suggesting that reported profits are materially stronger than actual cash generation and that the business is not growing the top line to support the current earnings base. Quality breakdown | The cash-conversion concern resolves when free cash flow rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the gap between profits and cash generation has normalized. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping businesses often run capital-intensive maintenance cycles that temporarily depress FCF-to-net-income ratios; if the gap is driven by a scheduled fleet investment rather than a structural working-capital issue, it may normalize without impairing distributions. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.3 — indicating both institutional accumulation and positive trend confirmation — which supports a favorable near-term price structure despite the overall moderate setup. Momentum breakdown | Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume remains in an upward trend over the next six months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss of -8.7% against estimates, which could pressure near-term price action and test technical support; a second consecutive miss could reverse both the estimate trend and the price momentum. | ||
A forward P/E of 5.9x combined with 40% operating margins and strong absolute scores on both price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios places the stock in attractively-valued territory, offering meaningful headroom relative to intrinsic value even at current depressed freight market pricing.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap closes and the stock appreciates toward the $17.85 consensus target within 12 months as the discount narrows.
CounterShipping companies routinely trade at low multiples because the cycle amplifies earnings volatility; the 5.9x forward P/E may reflect a market consensus that cycle-peak earnings are unsustainable rather than genuine undervaluation.
Analyst consensus earnings estimates have risen 85.9% over the past 30 days — one of the largest short-window upward estimate revisions observable — and the most recent sentiment proxy confirms this as a material positive shift in the market's fundamental outlook for the business.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings estimates continue to rise or remain at elevated levels over the next two quarters, and the next reported quarter delivers a positive EPS surprise that validates the upward revision.
CounterA sharp 30-day revision of this magnitude can overshoot; if it reflects a temporary spot-rate spike rather than a durable improvement in contracted revenue, estimates could reverse as sharply as they rose.
Free cash flow represents only 42% of net income — a red-flag level of cash conversion — and revenue has declined 5%, together suggesting that reported profits are materially stronger than actual cash generation and that the business is not growing the top line to support the current earnings base.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The cash-conversion concern resolves when free cash flow rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the gap between profits and cash generation has normalized.
CounterShipping businesses often run capital-intensive maintenance cycles that temporarily depress FCF-to-net-income ratios; if the gap is driven by a scheduled fleet investment rather than a structural working-capital issue, it may normalize without impairing distributions.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.3 — indicating both institutional accumulation and positive trend confirmation — which supports a favorable near-term price structure despite the overall moderate setup.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume remains in an upward trend over the next six months.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss of -8.7% against estimates, which could pressure near-term price action and test technical support; a second consecutive miss could reverse both the estimate trend and the price momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 42% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 12 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+85.9%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Estimates up 85.9% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 305.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.89
Upside
+21.0%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.6; weakest: Growth at 0.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Technical at 8.8, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Momentum at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.89 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A forward P/E of 5.9x combined with 40% operating margins and strong absolute scores on both price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios places the stock in attractively-valued territory, offering meaningful headroom relative to intrinsic value even at current depressed freight market pricing.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 28% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the strong-margin thesis has deteriorated materially.
- P2Analyst consensus earnings estimates have risen 85.9% over the past 30 days — one of the largest short-window upward estimate revisions observable — and the most recent sentiment proxy confirms this as a material positive shift in the market's fundamental outlook for the business.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus EPS estimate for the next 12 months falls more than 30% from its current elevated level, reversing the upward revision trend.
- P3Free cash flow represents only 42% of net income — a red-flag level of cash conversion — and revenue has declined 5%, together suggesting that reported profits are materially stronger than actual cash generation and that the business is not growing the top line to support the current earnings base.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 70% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating that cash conversion has normalized.
- P4The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.3 — indicating both institutional accumulation and positive trend confirmation — which supports a favorable near-term price structure despite the overall moderate setup.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 10 or more consecutive trading days and on-balance volume turns negative, breaking the technical accumulation pattern.