Chemung Financial is a cheaply valued regional bank (forward P/E 10.0x) with a steady earnings-beat record, but 65% single-county exposure, heavy commercial real estate concentration and a price already 9.5% above the analyst target leave it outside the investable universe.
Thesis pillars
- Commercial Loan Concentration—
- Single County Concentration Cliff—
- Attractive Valuation Multiples—
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $81.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 65% exposure to Chemung County (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans (76.4%).
Chemung Financial Corporation is a bank holding company operating Chemung Canal Trust Company (branded Chemung Canal Trust, Capital Bank, and Canal Bank) across 30 branches in 13 New York counties and Bradford County, Pennsylvania, plus its CFS subsidiary offering insurance,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $81.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 65% exposure to Chemung County (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans (76.4%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $395M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Chemung Financial Corp
About Chemung Financial Corp
Chemung Financial Corporation held $2.710 billion in consolidated assets, $2.270 billion in loans, and $2.271 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, operating 30 branches across 13 New York counties and Bradford County, Pennsylvania under the Chemung Canal Trust, Capital Bank, and Canal Bank brands. The Bank commands 64.56% of total market deposits in its home Chemung County, and its wealth management group oversees $2.338 billion in assets under management or administration.
Chemung earns net interest income on a loan book split across commercial and industrial, commercial mortgage, residential mortgage, and consumer segments, funded primarily by low-cost checking and core deposits gathered through its branch network, supplemented by brokered deposits and, in 2025, $45.0 million of newly issued ten-year subordinated notes. Fee income comes chiefly from its Wealth Management Group — the largest contributor to non-interest income, with $2.338 billion in assets under management or administration — plus deposit service fees and CFS's insurance, mutual fund, brokerage, and tax preparation services. The Bank also offers interest rate swaps to larger commercial mortgage borrowers, matching them with offsetting swaps against a Domestic Systemically Important Bank counterparty to manage its own interest rate risk. The Corporation is regulated by the Federal Reserve as a bank holding company, while the Bank itself answers to the FDIC and the New York State Department of Financial Services.
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Chemung's commercial real estate book sits meaningfully above the regulatory attention threshold: non-owner occupied CRE loans equaled 384.9% of the Bank's risk-based capital as of December 31, 2025 — well past the 300% level at which the OCC, FDIC, and Federal Reserve's 2006 CRE Guidance calls for increased supervisory scrutiny — and those balances grew 37.1% over the preceding 36 months, also above the guidance's 50%-growth trigger threshold in combination. Layered on that, CRE and commercial and industrial loans together make up 76.4% of the total loan portfolio, and 79.6% of deposits carry no stated maturity and can be withdrawn at any time without penalty, meaning a regulator-imposed CRE lending cap or a funding-cost shock would hit an unusually concentrated balance sheet simultaneously.
From Chemung Financial Corp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-06Recent Developments — Chemung Financial Corp
Latest news
- NEWS Chemung Financial Raises Quarterly Dividend From $0.34 To $0.36 Per Share — benzinga Aug 19, 2026
Generated 2026-08-31T11:27:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans76%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, the Corporation's portfolio of commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans totaled $1.734 billion or 76.4% of total loans.'
- HIGHloan_portfolionon-owner occupied commercial real estate loans10-K Item 1A: 'Non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans represented 384.9% of Bank risk-based capital as of December 31, 2025 and outstanding balances of non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans increased by 37.1% during the 36 months preceding December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHloan_portfoliodeposits with no stated maturity80%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, the Bank had $1.8 billion of deposit liabilities, representing 79.6% of total deposits, that had no maturity and, therefore, may be withdrawn by the depositor at any time without penalty.'
- HIGHGeographicChemung County65%10-K Item 1: 'the Bank held a majority of market deposits in Chemung County, where it is headquartered, with 64.56% of total market deposits.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $81.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 65% exposure to Chemung County (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans (76.4%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Market cap $395M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $83.92 (+2.5%), stop $77.99 (−5.0%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $83.92 (-9.5% upside). Target $83.92 (+2.5%), stop $77.99 (−5.0%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $77.99.
Single-region cliff: 65% exposure to Chemung County (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans (76.4%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans.
Chemung Financial Corp trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover CHMG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $87.
What does Chemung Financial Corp do?Chemung Financial Corporation is a bank holding company operating Chemung Canal Trust Company (branded Chemung Canal...
Chemung Financial Corporation is a bank holding company operating Chemung Canal Trust Company (branded Chemung Canal Trust, Capital Bank, and Canal Bank) across 30 branches in 13 New York counties and Bradford County, Pennsylvania, plus its CFS subsidiary offering insurance, mutual funds, and brokerage services. As of December 31, 2025, the company had $2.710 billion in consolidated assets, $2.270 billion in loans — 76.4% commercial real estate and commercial & industrial — and $2.271 billion in deposits.