Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.56
- ▸Attractively valued
CHMG · Why this verdict
Why Chemung Financial (CHMG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chemung Financial is a cheaply valued regional bank (forward P/E 10.0x) with a steady earnings-beat record, but 65% single-county exposure, heavy commercial real estate concentration and a price already 9.5% above the analyst target leave it outside the investable universe.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans make up 76.4% of the loan portfolio, with non-owner occupied commercial real estate flagged as a concentration. Risk breakdown | Commercial concentration should hold steady or decline without a rise in problem loans over ~12 months. | — |
| CounterCommercial lending carries higher yields and margins, and the Piotroski score of 8/9 suggests underlying financial health is strong. | ||
65% of exposure sits in Chemung County, above the 60% threshold, so a regional macroeconomic shock becomes an idiosyncratic terminal risk for the bank. Bear case | Geographic exposure should diversify below the 60% threshold over the next 12 months, or credit quality should hold through any local shock. | — |
| CounterA long-tenured local franchise may know its borrowers better than diversified peers, and a stable county economy could keep losses low. | ||
The stock is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 10.0x and a PEG of 0.63, supported by strong margins of 29%. Valuation breakdown | Earnings should keep growing so the low multiple persists or re-rates upward over ~12 months. | — |
| CounterThe price is already 9.5% above the analyst target and a low multiple on a concentrated regional bank may be a fair discount for risk rather than a bargain. | ||
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.2%, including a 17.5% beat in April 2026. Earnings | EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus at the 2026-10-21 report and in later quarters. | — |
| CounterBeats are uneven, with a 1-cent beat and misses in the prior year, and consensus estimates on lightly covered banks can be easy to clear. | ||
The price of $81.93 is above the analyst target (target reached, -9.5% upside) and momentum at 3.5 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, leaving no upside cushion. Warnings | Momentum should recover above the 4.5 bar and upside to target should turn positive for the setup to improve. | — |
| CounterThe stock is above its 200-day moving average with an RSI near 33, which marks a pullback in an uptrend that could be a buying opportunity. | ||
Commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans make up 76.4% of the loan portfolio, with non-owner occupied commercial real estate flagged as a concentration.
—Risk breakdown
- Expectation
- Commercial concentration should hold steady or decline without a rise in problem loans over ~12 months.
CounterCommercial lending carries higher yields and margins, and the Piotroski score of 8/9 suggests underlying financial health is strong.
65% of exposure sits in Chemung County, above the 60% threshold, so a regional macroeconomic shock becomes an idiosyncratic terminal risk for the bank.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- Geographic exposure should diversify below the 60% threshold over the next 12 months, or credit quality should hold through any local shock.
CounterA long-tenured local franchise may know its borrowers better than diversified peers, and a stable county economy could keep losses low.
The stock is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 10.0x and a PEG of 0.63, supported by strong margins of 29%.
—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should keep growing so the low multiple persists or re-rates upward over ~12 months.
CounterThe price is already 9.5% above the analyst target and a low multiple on a concentrated regional bank may be a fair discount for risk rather than a bargain.
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.2%, including a 17.5% beat in April 2026.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus at the 2026-10-21 report and in later quarters.
CounterBeats are uneven, with a 1-cent beat and misses in the prior year, and consensus estimates on lightly covered banks can be easy to clear.
The price of $81.93 is above the analyst target (target reached, -9.5% upside) and momentum at 3.5 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, leaving no upside cushion.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above the 4.5 bar and upside to target should turn positive for the setup to improve.
CounterThe stock is above its 200-day moving average with an RSI near 33, which marks a pullback in an uptrend that could be a buying opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $430,847 (0.109% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 9.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| beta | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $395M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.89
Upside
-9.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of -1.89.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Value at 7.9, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Insider at 4.2, and Catalyst at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Single County Concentration Cliff
Trip ifChemung County exposure falls below 60% from the current 65% of the portfolio.
- P2Commercial Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans fall below 70% of the loan portfolio from 76.4%.
- P3Attractive Valuation Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 10.0x without matching earnings growth.
- P4Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Weak Momentum Target Exceeded
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.5.