Church & Dwight has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and converts net income to free cash flow at a well above average rate, but the stock has already traded past its near-term price target with a negative risk/reward and a 24x forward earnings multiple, while heavy revenue concentration in U.S. markets and a narrow brand portfolio leaves limited margin for disappointment.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Conversion↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Stretched Valuation Above Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026· older than 90 days
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. (CHD) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%).
Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, WATERPIK, and OXICLEAN across Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products segments. Walmart accounts for approximately 23% of net sales;... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Church & Dwight Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Church & Dwight (CHD) Adds Jonathon J. Nudi To Its Board In 2027 - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS Church & Dwight (CHD) Q3 earnings report preview: what to look for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (NYSE: CHD) Dips 0.35% to USD 105.01 as +46.59% EPS Growth Draws Attention - Kalkine India — Kalkine India Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What Should Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) Watchers Expect This Quarter? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What Is Shaping Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) Ahead Of Its Quarterly Earnings Webcast? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart23%10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart is our largest customer, accounting for approximately 23% of net sales in each of 2025, 2024, and 2023'
- MEDIUMCustomertop four customers44%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top four customers accounted for approximately 44%, 43%, and 44% of net sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
- HIGHGeographicU.S. markets82%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 82% of our sales were generated in U.S. markets'
- HIGHProductseven power brands70%10-K Item 1: 'Seven of those brands are designated as "power brands" ... represent approximately 70% of our net sales and profits'
- MEDIUMSupplierTata Chemicals (Soda Ash) Partners10-K Item 1: 'a partnership agreement with Tata Chemicals (Soda Ash) Partners ... We fulfill a substantial amount of our soda ash supply requirements through the partnership'
- HIGHSuppliersole source contract manufacturers (certain products)10-K Item 1A: 'sole source contract manufacturers and suppliers for certain products'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $112.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $98.05 reached (−12.5%), stop $106.95 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $98.05 reached (−12.5% from $112.03); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $98.05 reached (−12.5%), stop $106.95 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $106.95.
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.4 (forward 27.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
26 analysts rate CHD, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $109.
What does Church & Dwight Company, Inc. do?Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN,...
Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, WATERPIK, and OXICLEAN across Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products segments. Walmart accounts for approximately 23% of net sales; seven power brands generate roughly 70% of net sales and profits. International revenue represented approximately 18% of consolidated net sales in 2025.