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Church & Dwight Company, Inc. (CHD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $95.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (~82% of sales) (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Church & Dwight is a US consumer products company with seven power brands (ARM & HAMMER, OXICLEAN, BATISTE, WATERPIK, THERABREATH, HERO, TOUCHLAND) sold through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, and e-commerce. Approximately 82% of 2025 sales from US markets; Walmart = 23% of... Read more

$95.99+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#8 of 13 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.92%
IncomeYield1.27%(5y avg 1.16%)Payout39.23%sustainable
Stop $91.24Target $98.28(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$102.16+6.4%19 analysts
$98.28our TP
$95.99price
$102.16mean
$74
$115

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $95.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (~82% of sales) (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Church & Dwight Company, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (~82% of sales) (82.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.8
P/E (Fwd)24.1
Mkt Cap$22.9B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn11.8%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta0.48
Dividend1.27%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$75-21.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States (~82% of sales)82%
    10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025, approximately 82% of our sales were generated in U.S. markets'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart (~23% of consolidated net sales)23%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart is our largest customer, accounting for approximately 23% of net sales in each of 2025, 2024, and 2023'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-4 customers (~44% of net sales)44%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top four customers accounted for approximately 44%, 43%, and 44% of net sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
2.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
6.2
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $89.76Resistance $100.29

Price Targets

$91
$98
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $95.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (~82% of sales) (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $98.28 (+2.4%), stop $91.24 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.28 (+1.5% upside). Target $98.28 (+2.4%), stop $91.24 (−5.2%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $91.24.

What are the risks of investing in CHD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (~82% of sales) (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is CHD overvalued or undervalued?

Church & Dwight Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.8 (forward 24.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CHD?

26 analysts cover CHD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $102.

What does Church & Dwight Company, Inc. do?Church & Dwight is a US consumer products company with seven power brands (ARM & HAMMER, OXICLEAN, BATISTE, WATERPIK,...

Church & Dwight is a US consumer products company with seven power brands (ARM & HAMMER, OXICLEAN, BATISTE, WATERPIK, THERABREATH, HERO, TOUCHLAND) sold through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, and e-commerce. Approximately 82% of 2025 sales from US markets; Walmart = 23% of consolidated net sales; top-4 customers = ~44% of net sales.

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