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CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc.Sell6.2·$10.88-0.55%
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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.88 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market.... Read more

$10.88-0.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#27 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.48%
IncomeYield14.21%(5y avg 11.03%)Payout228.57%at-risk
Stop $10.39Target $10.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$12.36+13.6%7 analysts
$10.86our TP
$10.88price
$12.36mean
$10
$14

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.88 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$757M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn19.5%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta0.68
Dividend14.21%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
2.0
52w Position
7.1

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.5
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 1421.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.14Resistance $11.08

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGBD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.88 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $10.39. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.86 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $10.39. Stop-loss: $10.39.

What are the risks of investing in CGBD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is CGBD overvalued or undervalued?

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGBD?

14 analysts cover CGBD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. do?Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans,...

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.

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