Carlyle Secured Lending screens cheap and is rated an industry growth leader, but the stock sits in a confirmed technical downtrend, has missed earnings in two of its last three reported quarters before a recent beat, and now carries both a reached price target and a negative news-driven downgrade, so the setup needs the recovery signals to firm up before the valuation case can play out.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Growth Leader→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Early Recovery↑Improving
- Recent Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Asset Management
Wait for pullback to $10.54. Price sits above the model's entry target of $10.54; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a specialty finance business development company that originates secured first- and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with roughly $25.0 million or greater of EBITDA, externally managed by an adviser affiliated with Carlyle's $211... Read more
Wait for pullback to $10.54. Price sits above the model's entry target of $10.54; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Rivernorth Capital Management LLC Lowers Stock Position in Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. $CGBD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS CGBD|Carlyle Secured Lending Inc|Price:10.350|Chg%:+0.010 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Carlyle Secured Lending (Dinari Tokenized Stock) (CGBD) Price Prediction 2026-2031 - Bybit — Bybit neutral
- NEWS Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-11-02T11:53:15Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $10.54. Price sits above the model's entry target of $10.54; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $10.63 reached (−1.4%), stop $10.00 (−7.8%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $10.63 reached (−1.4% from $10.78); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $10.63 reached (−1.4%), stop $10.00 (−7.8%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $10.00.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
14 analysts cover CGBD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. do?Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a specialty finance business development company that originates secured first- and...
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a specialty finance business development company that originates secured first- and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with roughly $25.0 million or greater of EBITDA, externally managed by an adviser affiliated with Carlyle's $211 billion Global Credit platform. The company completed its merger with Carlyle Secured Lending III in March 2025 and, as of December 31, 2025, had $1,543.7 million of outstanding indebtedness, co-investing alongside partners through joint ventures including Credit Fund, Credit Fund II, and the newly formed Structured Cr