Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CGBD · Why this verdict
Why Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Carlyle Secured Lending screens cheap and is rated an industry growth leader, but the stock sits in a confirmed technical downtrend, has missed earnings in two of its last three reported quarters before a recent beat, and now carries both a reached price target and a negative news-driven downgrade, so the setup needs the recovery signals to firm up before the valuation case can play out.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Carlyle Secured Lending screens as attractively valued, with a forward P/E near 7.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.08, and the peer-ranking data separately flags it as an industry growth leader. Bull case | The value score should stay elevated and the discount should narrow via price appreciation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite the cheap valuation, the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, which could mean the market is discounting the shares for reasons the multiple alone doesn't capture. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, with the average declining about 2.1% per month, though the setup is characterized as an early recovery given improving MACD and RSI near 60. Momentum breakdown | For the recovery read to hold, price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should turn positive over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe engine's own read already flags early recovery characteristics even within the technical downtrend, which could mean the worst of the decline is behind the stock. | ||
Carlyle Secured Lending missed earnings estimates in two of the three quarters before its most recent print, by 11.8% and 5.7%, though the most recent quarter returned to a beat. Earnings | The recent return to a beat should be sustained, with EPS surprise staying at or above 0% in the next reported quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 flagged as a penalty, adds a layer of earnings risk that could pressure results even after the recent return to beating estimates. | ||
Carlyle Secured Lending's tracked price target has already been reached, and a negative news modifier has downgraded the recommended stance from hold to sell if currently holding. Warnings | For the setup to improve, the news modifier should clear and the price target should be raised, restoring room to the upside over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe underlying business still shows strong margins of about 20%, a fundamental counterweight to the near-term negative news-driven downgrade. | ||
Carlyle Secured Lending screens as attractively valued, with a forward P/E near 7.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.08, and the peer-ranking data separately flags it as an industry growth leader.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated and the discount should narrow via price appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterDespite the cheap valuation, the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, which could mean the market is discounting the shares for reasons the multiple alone doesn't capture.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, with the average declining about 2.1% per month, though the setup is characterized as an early recovery given improving MACD and RSI near 60.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For the recovery read to hold, price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope should turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe engine's own read already flags early recovery characteristics even within the technical downtrend, which could mean the worst of the decline is behind the stock.
Carlyle Secured Lending missed earnings estimates in two of the three quarters before its most recent print, by 11.8% and 5.7%, though the most recent quarter returned to a beat.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The recent return to a beat should be sustained, with EPS surprise staying at or above 0% in the next reported quarter.
CounterElevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 flagged as a penalty, adds a layer of earnings risk that could pressure results even after the recent return to beating estimates.
Carlyle Secured Lending's tracked price target has already been reached, and a negative news modifier has downgraded the recommended stance from hold to sell if currently holding.
Tripped↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- For the setup to improve, the news modifier should clear and the price target should be raised, restoring room to the upside over the next 12 months.
CounterThe underlying business still shows strong margins of about 20%, a fundamental counterweight to the near-term negative news-driven downgrade.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 798% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 106 (elite)
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $85,670 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.50
- ▸High IV: 129%
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 13.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.40
Upside
-4.4%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.40 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Quality at 6.7, and Momentum at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Peer rank at 2.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Growth Leader
Trip ifShares decline more than 15% without any re-rating in the multiple, confirming continued de-rating instead of value realization.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Early Recovery
Trip ifPrice closes back above the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope turns positive for 2 consecutive months.
- P3Recent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the recent return to beating estimates.
- P4Target Reached Negative News ModifierTripped
Trip ifPrice target is raised such that upside to target exceeds 10%, reopening meaningful room above the current level.