Value
6.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.0 |
| p ocf | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 8.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
BXMT · Why this verdict
Why Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive quarterly earnings misses — including one quarter with a loss far below consensus — combined with a dividend flagged as potentially unsustainable, an extremely elevated put/call ratio, and negative price momentum present a deteriorating risk profile despite strong year-over-year revenue growth.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average negative surprise exceeding 200%, including one quarter where actual results came in as a loss far below the consensus estimate — a pattern that signals meaningful credit-quality or execution challenges. Earnings | Earnings per share returns to beating consensus estimates for at least 2 consecutive quarters, signaling an inflection in earnings delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's miss, while still substantial at roughly 40% below the estimate, was far smaller in magnitude than the prior quarter's near-total shortfall, which may indicate the worst credit events are already reflected in reported results. | ||
The dividend yield is flagged as high but potentially unsustainable given the pattern of four consecutive earnings misses and a dividend safety score well below the level typically associated with covered yields, raising the risk of a reduction that could trigger significant price dislocation. Catalyst | Actual earnings per share exceeds $0.35 for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating sufficient coverage to support the current distribution. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong 35% year-over-year revenue growth provides a top-line foundation that could improve earnings coverage over time if credit losses normalize, potentially sustaining the dividend longer than the miss streak alone suggests. | ||
Revenue growth of 35% year-over-year stands as a meaningful positive, and if that trajectory sustains, it could eventually improve per-share earnings and restore adequate coverage of the current yield. Growth | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the top-line trend that underpins the bull case. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong revenue growth has so far failed to translate into positive earnings surprises across four consecutive quarters, suggesting costs, credit losses, or structural factors are absorbing top-line gains before they reach the bottom line. | ||
A put/call ratio of 4.00 — among the most elevated readings — indicates that options market participants have built significant downside hedges relative to call exposure, reflecting institutional concern about near-term price risk that may not yet be fully reflected in the stock price. Risk | Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5 as earnings stabilize, indicating extreme hedging demand has unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also reflect hedging against existing long holdings rather than outright bearish positioning, and if the earnings trajectory improves, those hedges may be unwound rapidly, removing a source of selling pressure. | ||
Price has retreated below the 200-day moving average with volume showing a distribution pattern, though the 200-day average itself is still rising at 0.5% per month — a configuration that may represent a temporary pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a structural breakdown. Momentum | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months while on-balance volume returns to accumulation, confirming the pullback interpretation. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume alongside momentum failing to meet the required threshold suggests distribution pressure is real; if earnings do not improve, what currently looks like a pullback could extend into a more sustained decline that invalidates the uptrend reading. | ||
The company has missed analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average negative surprise exceeding 200%, including one quarter where actual results came in as a loss far below the consensus estimate — a pattern that signals meaningful credit-quality or execution challenges.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share returns to beating consensus estimates for at least 2 consecutive quarters, signaling an inflection in earnings delivery.
CounterThe most recent quarter's miss, while still substantial at roughly 40% below the estimate, was far smaller in magnitude than the prior quarter's near-total shortfall, which may indicate the worst credit events are already reflected in reported results.
The dividend yield is flagged as high but potentially unsustainable given the pattern of four consecutive earnings misses and a dividend safety score well below the level typically associated with covered yields, raising the risk of a reduction that could trigger significant price dislocation.
→StableCatalyst
- Expectation
- Actual earnings per share exceeds $0.35 for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating sufficient coverage to support the current distribution.
CounterStrong 35% year-over-year revenue growth provides a top-line foundation that could improve earnings coverage over time if credit losses normalize, potentially sustaining the dividend longer than the miss streak alone suggests.
Revenue growth of 35% year-over-year stands as a meaningful positive, and if that trajectory sustains, it could eventually improve per-share earnings and restore adequate coverage of the current yield.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the top-line trend that underpins the bull case.
CounterStrong revenue growth has so far failed to translate into positive earnings surprises across four consecutive quarters, suggesting costs, credit losses, or structural factors are absorbing top-line gains before they reach the bottom line.
A put/call ratio of 4.00 — among the most elevated readings — indicates that options market participants have built significant downside hedges relative to call exposure, reflecting institutional concern about near-term price risk that may not yet be fully reflected in the stock price.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5 as earnings stabilize, indicating extreme hedging demand has unwound.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also reflect hedging against existing long holdings rather than outright bearish positioning, and if the earnings trajectory improves, those hedges may be unwound rapidly, removing a source of selling pressure.
Price has retreated below the 200-day moving average with volume showing a distribution pattern, though the 200-day average itself is still rising at 0.5% per month — a configuration that may represent a temporary pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a structural breakdown.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months while on-balance volume returns to accumulation, confirming the pullback interpretation.
CounterFalling on-balance volume alongside momentum failing to meet the required threshold suggests distribution pressure is real; if earnings do not improve, what currently looks like a pullback could extend into a more sustained decline that invalidates the uptrend reading.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $31,459 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 0.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.01
Upside
+5.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 1.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.9, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Catalyst at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has missed analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average negative surprise exceeding 200%, including one quarter where actual results came in as a loss far below the consensus estimate — a pattern that signals meaningful credit-quality or execution challenges.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the four-quarter miss streak.
- P2The dividend yield is flagged as high but potentially unsustainable given the pattern of four consecutive earnings misses and a dividend safety score well below the level typically associated with covered yields, raising the risk of a reduction that could trigger significant price dislocation.
Trip ifActual EPS exceeds $0.35 for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating dividend coverage has been restored.
- P3Revenue growth of 35% year-over-year stands as a meaningful positive, and if that trajectory sustains, it could eventually improve per-share earnings and restore adequate coverage of the current yield.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4A put/call ratio of 4.00 — among the most elevated readings — indicates that options market participants have built significant downside hedges relative to call exposure, reflecting institutional concern about near-term price risk that may not yet be fully reflected in the stock price.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 for 2 consecutive months, indicating extreme hedging demand has normalized.
- P5Price has retreated below the 200-day moving average with volume showing a distribution pattern, though the 200-day average itself is still rising at 0.5% per month — a configuration that may represent a temporary pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a structural breakdown.
Trip ifPrice falls more than 5% below current levels and the 200-day moving average slope turns negative, confirming a structural breakdown rather than a temporary pullback.