Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
BRSL · Why this verdict
Why Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading (BRSL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brightstar Lottery screens attractively on valuation with a forward multiple of 12.4 times and a PEG ratio of 0.25, but a confirmed technical downtrend, a recent earnings miss, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 23.4 signal that the valuation case cannot be acted on until momentum stabilizes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.4 times and a PEG ratio of 0.25, the shares appear attractively priced relative to the company's earnings outlook, with analysts collectively pointing to roughly 44% upside to their consensus target. Valuation breakdown | The analyst consensus price target is approached within 12 months as earnings demonstrate the growth pace implied by the low PEG ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive valuation multiples can persist or compress further in a confirmed downtrend; a stock that appears cheap relative to growth estimates often gets cheaper before fundamental support takes hold, particularly following a recent earnings miss. | ||
Free cash flow is converting well above reported net income, suggesting the business generates meaningful cash even when accounting charges weigh on headline earnings—a quality indicator that provides some cushion if GAAP profitability remains volatile. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow remains positive for the next four fiscal quarters, confirming that cash generation is not reliant on favorable one-time working capital movements. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme ratio between free cash flow and net income can reflect one-time working capital events or limited reinvestment rather than a sustainable cash engine; if the relationship normalizes in subsequent periods, the quality signal fades. | ||
The share price is below its 200-day moving average with that trend line declining at approximately 3% over the past month, confirming a negative technical setup that typically delays fundamental value from being recognized in the market price. Momentum breakdown | The share price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 20 consecutive trading days, signaling the downtrend has reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a PEG ratio of 0.25 and analyst upside of 44%, a single positive earnings catalyst could close the gap between price and value quickly, meaning the technical pattern resolves before any moving-average confirmation arrives. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 23.4 is an extreme reading indicating that market participants are buying protective options at an unusually high rate relative to call activity—a sign of pervasive institutional caution about near-term downside risk. Risk breakdown | A reduction in the put-to-call ratio below 3.0 would indicate that bearish options positioning is normalizing and the risk overhang is easing. | →Stable |
| CounterIn smaller or less liquid situations, an extreme put-to-call ratio can reflect a single large institutional hedge rather than broad consensus fear; if that position unwinds or expires, the signal disappears quickly without a fundamental catalyst. | ||
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.4 times and a PEG ratio of 0.25, the shares appear attractively priced relative to the company's earnings outlook, with analysts collectively pointing to roughly 44% upside to their consensus target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target is approached within 12 months as earnings demonstrate the growth pace implied by the low PEG ratio.
CounterAttractive valuation multiples can persist or compress further in a confirmed downtrend; a stock that appears cheap relative to growth estimates often gets cheaper before fundamental support takes hold, particularly following a recent earnings miss.
Free cash flow is converting well above reported net income, suggesting the business generates meaningful cash even when accounting charges weigh on headline earnings—a quality indicator that provides some cushion if GAAP profitability remains volatile.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remains positive for the next four fiscal quarters, confirming that cash generation is not reliant on favorable one-time working capital movements.
CounterAn extreme ratio between free cash flow and net income can reflect one-time working capital events or limited reinvestment rather than a sustainable cash engine; if the relationship normalizes in subsequent periods, the quality signal fades.
The share price is below its 200-day moving average with that trend line declining at approximately 3% over the past month, confirming a negative technical setup that typically delays fundamental value from being recognized in the market price.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The share price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 20 consecutive trading days, signaling the downtrend has reversed.
CounterWith a PEG ratio of 0.25 and analyst upside of 44%, a single positive earnings catalyst could close the gap between price and value quickly, meaning the technical pattern resolves before any moving-average confirmation arrives.
A put-to-call ratio of 23.4 is an extreme reading indicating that market participants are buying protective options at an unusually high rate relative to call activity—a sign of pervasive institutional caution about near-term downside risk.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- A reduction in the put-to-call ratio below 3.0 would indicate that bearish options positioning is normalizing and the risk overhang is easing.
CounterIn smaller or less liquid situations, an extreme put-to-call ratio can reflect a single large institutional hedge rather than broad consensus fear; if that position unwinds or expires, the signal disappears quickly without a fundamental catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 8.7 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 52%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 9.7 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 850.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.99
Upside
+31.8%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.99 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Sentiment at 7.4, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Peer rank at 3.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.99 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.4 times and a PEG ratio of 0.25, the shares appear attractively priced relative to the company's earnings outlook, with analysts collectively pointing to roughly 44% upside to their consensus target.
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the growth implied by the PEG ratio is not materializing.
- P2Free cash flow is converting well above reported net income, suggesting the business generates meaningful cash even when accounting charges weigh on headline earnings—a quality indicator that provides some cushion if GAAP profitability remains volatile.
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below $0 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the strong cash conversion that underpins this pillar has broken down.
- P3The share price is below its 200-day moving average with that trend line declining at approximately 3% over the past month, confirming a negative technical setup that typically delays fundamental value from being recognized in the market price.
Trip ifShare price closes above the 200-day moving average and holds there for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
- P4A put-to-call ratio of 23.4 is an extreme reading indicating that market participants are buying protective options at an unusually high rate relative to call activity—a sign of pervasive institutional caution about near-term downside risk.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 for 2 consecutive months.