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Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5.

Blackbaud provides cloud software to nonprofits, educational institutions, and corporate social impact organizations, including fundraising, financial management, and education solutions. Revenue is ~64% contractual recurring (3-year terms) and ~34% transactional (donation... Read more

$30.85+43.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#61 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield14.44%
Stop $29.77Target $44.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$51.00+65.3%5 analysts
$44.37our TP
$30.85price
$51.00mean
$65

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Blackbaud, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.5
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE418.7%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta1.09
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.69Resistance $40.15

Price Targets

$30
$44
A.Upside+43.8%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLKB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $44.37 (+43.8%), stop $29.77 (−3.6%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the BLKB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.37 (+43.8% upside). Target $44.37 (+43.8%), stop $29.77 (−3.6%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $29.77.

What are the risks of investing in BLKB?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is BLKB overvalued or undervalued?

Blackbaud, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BLKB?

10 analysts cover BLKB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Blackbaud, Inc. do?Blackbaud provides cloud software to nonprofits, educational institutions, and corporate social impact organizations,...

Blackbaud provides cloud software to nonprofits, educational institutions, and corporate social impact organizations, including fundraising, financial management, and education solutions. Revenue is ~64% contractual recurring (3-year terms) and ~34% transactional (donation processing, tuition management, consumer giving). Its philanthropic dataset and integrated workflows create switching costs across the sector.

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