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BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.Sell5.7·$28.01+1.45%
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Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5; Weak growth.

Blackbaud provides cloud software and payment processing services to nonprofits, educational institutions, foundations, and corporate social responsibility programs, generating approximately 64% of revenue from contractual recurring subscriptions and 34% from transactional fees... Read more

$28.01+58.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#57 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield16.13%
Stop $26.05Target $44.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$51.00+82.1%5 analysts
$44.37our TP
$28.01price
$51.00mean
$65

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Blackbaud, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T08:56:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 38%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.4
P/E (Fwd)4.7
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE418.7%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta1.01
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$75+167.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Obv
1.9
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.59Resistance $33.08

Price Targets

$26
$44
A.Upside+58.4%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BLKB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $26.05. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BLKB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.37 (+58.4% upside). Prior stop was $26.05. Stop-loss: $26.05.

What are the risks of investing in BLKB?

Leverage penalty (D/E 34.6): -1.5; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is BLKB overvalued or undervalued?

Blackbaud, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 4.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BLKB?

10 analysts cover BLKB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Blackbaud, Inc. do?Blackbaud provides cloud software and payment processing services to nonprofits, educational institutions, foundations,...

Blackbaud provides cloud software and payment processing services to nonprofits, educational institutions, foundations, and corporate social responsibility programs, generating approximately 64% of revenue from contractual recurring subscriptions and 34% from transactional fees including donation processing and tuition management. Most customers operate on three-year contracts with mid-to-high single-digit price increases at renewal; approximately 40% of contracts are due for renewal in 2026.

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