Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.78
BKNG · Why this verdict
Why Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (BKNG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality travel platform with 22% net margins, consistent earnings outperformance, and an attractive PEG of 0.75 offers compelling fundamentals roughly 18% below the analyst target, but a confirmed near-term price downtrend is the key timing risk — patient buyers see approximately 3-to-1 risk/reward if momentum recovers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters — the most recent was a beat, preceded by an inline quarter, then two older beats — with no outright misses, demonstrating a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations. Earnings | The company delivers at least 3 beats in the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 3%, extending the outperformance track record. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage quarterly surprise has been modest at roughly 4.9%; if management provides guidance that resets consensus upward, the cushion narrows and the track record of outperformance becomes harder to maintain. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock trades at a discount to its earnings growth rate and screens attractively valued relative to both the peer universe and the company's own growth profile. Value | Forward P/E remains below 18x for the next 12 months while earnings growth sustains the PEG below 1.0, confirming the valuation discount is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong growth expectations are already embedded in analyst targets; a slowdown in earnings growth — even modest — could push the PEG above 1.0 and render the current multiple no longer attractive on a growth-adjusted basis. | ||
The business posts 22% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a combined score of 42, and achieves a near-perfect Piotroski balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9, establishing durable earnings power and balance-sheet discipline that support a premium multiple. Quality | Net margin remains above 18% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 35 for the next four quarters, confirming the quality of the franchise is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.51 indicates meaningful options-market skepticism; if near-term earnings disappoint, the premium quality multiple could compress rapidly given the confirmed price downtrend already in place. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average — whose slope is declining at roughly 4.4% over 30 days — in a confirmed technical downtrend, creating near-term entry timing risk even as rising on-balance volume suggests underlying accumulation. Momentum | If the thesis holds, the price downtrend persists for at least 2 more months, offering a better entry point below current levels before momentum recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume in the context of a price decline indicates institutional buyers may be absorbing selling pressure; if accumulation continues, the price could recover toward the 200-day moving average faster than the downtrend pattern implies. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters — the most recent was a beat, preceded by an inline quarter, then two older beats — with no outright misses, demonstrating a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least 3 beats in the next 4 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 3%, extending the outperformance track record.
CounterAverage quarterly surprise has been modest at roughly 4.9%; if management provides guidance that resets consensus upward, the cushion narrows and the track record of outperformance becomes harder to maintain.
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock trades at a discount to its earnings growth rate and screens attractively valued relative to both the peer universe and the company's own growth profile.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 18x for the next 12 months while earnings growth sustains the PEG below 1.0, confirming the valuation discount is intact.
CounterStrong growth expectations are already embedded in analyst targets; a slowdown in earnings growth — even modest — could push the PEG above 1.0 and render the current multiple no longer attractive on a growth-adjusted basis.
The business posts 22% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a combined score of 42, and achieves a near-perfect Piotroski balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9, establishing durable earnings power and balance-sheet discipline that support a premium multiple.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 18% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 35 for the next four quarters, confirming the quality of the franchise is intact.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 1.51 indicates meaningful options-market skepticism; if near-term earnings disappoint, the premium quality multiple could compress rapidly given the confirmed price downtrend already in place.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average — whose slope is declining at roughly 4.4% over 30 days — in a confirmed technical downtrend, creating near-term entry timing risk even as rising on-balance volume suggests underlying accumulation.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, the price downtrend persists for at least 2 more months, offering a better entry point below current levels before momentum recovers.
CounterRising on-balance volume in the context of a price decline indicates institutional buyers may be absorbing selling pressure; if accumulation continues, the price could recover toward the 200-day moving average faster than the downtrend pattern implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Rule of 40: 42 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $13,545,750 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 89.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP->V9:POOR_ASYMMETRY|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Consumer Cyclical:2/10
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.3>=7.5+momentum=5.9>=5.0 exempted
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.16
Upside
+14.4%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 8.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.16 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Growth at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.16 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business posts 22% net margins, passes the Rule of 40 with a combined score of 42, and achieves a near-perfect Piotroski balance-sheet score of 8 out of 9, establishing durable earnings power and balance-sheet discipline that support a premium multiple.
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 18% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 22%.
- P2The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters — the most recent was a beat, preceded by an inline quarter, then two older beats — with no outright misses, demonstrating a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering relative to street expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the current no-miss streak.
- P3At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock trades at a discount to its earnings growth rate and screens attractively valued relative to both the peer universe and the company's own growth profile.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the growth-adjusted valuation discount has closed.
- P4The stock sits below its 200-day moving average — whose slope is declining at roughly 4.4% over 30 days — in a confirmed technical downtrend, creating near-term entry timing risk even as rising on-balance volume suggests underlying accumulation.
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the technical downtrend has reversed.