Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
BGSI · Why this verdict
Why Boyd Group Services (BGSI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boyd Group Services shows 28% revenue growth, a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 6.85-to-1 with 45.9% upside to the analyst target, and exceptional free cash flow conversion — but business quality sits marginally below the minimum floor and price momentum is negative, flagging execution risk despite the compelling theoretical setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business converts reported earnings into free cash at a rate well above net income, reflecting real cash generation quality above what thin reported margins alone convey and providing financial flexibility despite modest profitability ratios. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 300% for the next two fiscal years, confirming cash generation quality persists. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high FCF-to-income ratios can reflect low capital requirements in a specific period rather than structural quality; if investment requirements increase, conversion may compress sharply. | ||
Business quality scores at 3.9 — marginally below the 4.0 minimum threshold — reflecting thin net margins, modest return on assets, and a quality profile that falls just short of the bar for a high-conviction position. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months, driven by improving profitability metrics and margin expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score of 3.9 is a marginal miss against the 4.0 floor; a balance sheet health score of 7 out of 9 and strong free cash conversion suggest the fundamental weakness may be concentrated in thin reported profitability rather than operational fragility. | ||
With 45.9% upside to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 6.85-to-1, the risk/reward geometry is highly asymmetric in the investor's favor if the business can execute through its current weakness. Price targets | Price advances toward the $141.99 analyst target, recovering at least 20% from the current $97.32 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide gap between price and analyst target can persist or widen when momentum is negative and business quality is weak — the apparent asymmetry may reflect the market appropriately discounting quality and momentum risk rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
Price momentum at 3.3 sits materially below the 4.5 minimum threshold, and despite rising volume accumulation, the stock is trading below key moving averages — sellers have been in control and the technical setup has not confirmed any recovery. Engine gate (failed) | If this concern resolves, price closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 15 consecutive sessions, confirming the momentum breakdown has reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterWith 45.9% upside to the analyst target and rising on-balance volume, the accumulation pattern could represent early-stage positioning preceding a momentum recovery; buyers may already be building before price confirms. | ||
The business converts reported earnings into free cash at a rate well above net income, reflecting real cash generation quality above what thin reported margins alone convey and providing financial flexibility despite modest profitability ratios.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 300% for the next two fiscal years, confirming cash generation quality persists.
CounterExtremely high FCF-to-income ratios can reflect low capital requirements in a specific period rather than structural quality; if investment requirements increase, conversion may compress sharply.
Business quality scores at 3.9 — marginally below the 4.0 minimum threshold — reflecting thin net margins, modest return on assets, and a quality profile that falls just short of the bar for a high-conviction position.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months, driven by improving profitability metrics and margin expansion.
CounterThe quality score of 3.9 is a marginal miss against the 4.0 floor; a balance sheet health score of 7 out of 9 and strong free cash conversion suggest the fundamental weakness may be concentrated in thin reported profitability rather than operational fragility.
With 45.9% upside to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 6.85-to-1, the risk/reward geometry is highly asymmetric in the investor's favor if the business can execute through its current weakness.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward the $141.99 analyst target, recovering at least 20% from the current $97.32 within 12 months.
CounterA wide gap between price and analyst target can persist or widen when momentum is negative and business quality is weak — the apparent asymmetry may reflect the market appropriately discounting quality and momentum risk rather than a genuine mispricing.
Price momentum at 3.3 sits materially below the 4.5 minimum threshold, and despite rising volume accumulation, the stock is trading below key moving averages — sellers have been in control and the technical setup has not confirmed any recovery.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- If this concern resolves, price closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 15 consecutive sessions, confirming the momentum breakdown has reversed.
CounterWith 45.9% upside to the analyst target and rising on-balance volume, the accumulation pattern could represent early-stage positioning preceding a momentum recovery; buyers may already be building before price confirms.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.3 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 0.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 47.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:48d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.74
Upside
+45.0%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.5, Value at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Quality at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1With 45.9% upside to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 6.85-to-1, the risk/reward geometry is highly asymmetric in the investor's favor if the business can execute through its current weakness.
Trip ifPrice rises above $141 (the analyst consensus price target), exhausting the full 45.9% upside in the favorable asymmetry.
- P2The business converts reported earnings into free cash at a rate well above net income, reflecting real cash generation quality above what thin reported margins alone convey and providing financial flexibility despite modest profitability ratios.
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 200% for 2 consecutive fiscal years, indicating meaningful deterioration in cash conversion from current levels.
- P3Price momentum at 3.3 sits materially below the 4.5 minimum threshold, and despite rising volume accumulation, the stock is trading below key moving averages — sellers have been in control and the technical setup has not confirmed any recovery.
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for more than 15 consecutive sessions, confirming the momentum breakdown has reversed.
- P4Business quality scores at 3.9 — marginally below the 4.0 minimum threshold — reflecting thin net margins, modest return on assets, and a quality profile that falls just short of the bar for a high-conviction position.
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.9, indicating a clear recovery above the 4.0 minimum threshold.