Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
BGSI · Why this verdict
Why Boyd Group Services (BGSI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boyd Group is a fast-growing (30% YoY revenue) collision-repair consolidator with 48.6% analyst upside and rising-volume accumulation, but quality sits just under the floor and price remains in a confirmed downtrend with leverage and earnings in 10 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 30% YoY, ranking the company as an industry growth leader, with latest quarterly revenue of $1.01B versus $780M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY with quarterly revenue holding above $1.0B. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is acquisition-driven and organic growth may be much lower; integration costs keep operating margin at only 1.7 on the quality scale. | ||
Quality of 3.9 is just below the 4.0 floor because profitability is thin (net margin score 0.1, operating margin score 1.7), though cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF/NI and Piotroski is 7/9. Quality breakdown | Quality rises above 4.0 as operating margin expands and net income catches up to cash flow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 1000% FCF/NI ratio comes from a tiny net income base and may reflect depreciation and working capital, not improving earnings power. | ||
At $83.89 the stock is 48.6% below the $124.70 analyst target against 10.1% downside, a reward-to-risk of 4.82, with analyst upside of 75% from light coverage. Targets | Price moves toward the $124.70 target while holding the stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and targets set before a 9.7%/30d decline in the long-term average may be stale. | ||
Rising OBV shows volume accumulation and momentum is 7.2/10 with a positive MACD, yet price is below the 200-day average with a -9.7%/30d slope, a recovery attempt inside a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average while momentum holds above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA steeply falling long-term average means rallies can fail at resistance, and the recovery can reverse if earnings disappoint. | ||
Earnings arrive in 10 days after 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, while leverage (debt/equity score 4.7) adds balance-sheet risk. Earnings | The company beats estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters while leverage stays stable. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprise is +9.6% and quarterly EPS has risen from 0.50 to 0.80 year over year, so results may be improving despite the mixed beat record. | ||
Revenue is growing 30% YoY, ranking the company as an industry growth leader, with latest quarterly revenue of $1.01B versus $780M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY with quarterly revenue holding above $1.0B.
CounterGrowth is acquisition-driven and organic growth may be much lower; integration costs keep operating margin at only 1.7 on the quality scale.
Quality of 3.9 is just below the 4.0 floor because profitability is thin (net margin score 0.1, operating margin score 1.7), though cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF/NI and Piotroski is 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality rises above 4.0 as operating margin expands and net income catches up to cash flow.
CounterThe 1000% FCF/NI ratio comes from a tiny net income base and may reflect depreciation and working capital, not improving earnings power.
At $83.89 the stock is 48.6% below the $124.70 analyst target against 10.1% downside, a reward-to-risk of 4.82, with analyst upside of 75% from light coverage.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $124.70 target while holding the stop level.
CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and targets set before a 9.7%/30d decline in the long-term average may be stale.
Rising OBV shows volume accumulation and momentum is 7.2/10 with a positive MACD, yet price is below the 200-day average with a -9.7%/30d slope, a recovery attempt inside a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average while momentum holds above 5.5.
CounterA steeply falling long-term average means rallies can fail at resistance, and the recovery can reverse if earnings disappoint.
Earnings arrive in 10 days after 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, while leverage (debt/equity score 4.7) adds balance-sheet risk.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters while leverage stays stable.
CounterAverage surprise is +9.6% and quarterly EPS has risen from 0.50 to 0.80 year over year, so results may be improving despite the mixed beat record.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
| Current ratio | 2.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 2.1 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.94
Upside
+41.8%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 7d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.94.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.1, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Quality at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Large Analyst Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $95, cutting upside to less than 15% from the current 48.6%.
- P3Thin Margins Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.9.
- P4Recovery Setup In Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score drops to below 4.5 from the current 7.2.
- P5Earnings Event And Leverage
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in more than 2 of the next 4 quarters.