Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
BFC · Why this verdict
Why Bank First (BFC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Exceptional revenue growth of 49% year-over-year, best-in-class margins for its industry peer group, and strong price momentum with a golden cross and all moving averages aligned combine to form a compelling fundamental and technical picture; however, the price has closed to within 0.7% of the near-term resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward, and the most recent quarter was a miss, leaving little room for error at the current entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $142.93 against a resistance target of $143.90, the stock has only 0.7% of headroom remaining with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.12 — the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative ratio — meaning the current price level offers no meaningful reward for incremental risk in a new position. Price targets | Price closes more than 5% above the current take-profit level of $143.90 for 2 consecutive weeks, confirming that the resistance has been broken and new upside has opened. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong underlying growth and momentum can push price through technical resistance targets, particularly when the fundamental growth rate is as high as 49% — resistance levels are not hard ceilings in a strong fundamental environment. | ||
Revenue growing at 49% year-over-year with best-in-class margins and peer-group-leading growth rank places this bank among the fastest-growing operators in its regional peer set — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, justifies the current forward P/E of 11.9 times and a PEG of 0.18. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at this rate in a regional bank often reflects one-time acquisition-driven revenue rather than organic expansion; if consolidation synergies fade or loan growth normalizes, the top-line trajectory can decelerate sharply without warning. | ||
A golden cross has formed, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a technically aligned setup where short-term and long-term trend indicators all confirm the same direction, reducing the probability of an imminent trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 2 consecutive months while momentum score remains above 6.0. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high and sitting within 1% of the resistance target, meaning the technically aligned setup has already largely played out and there is limited additional price appreciation implied by the current pattern. | ||
The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by 18.54% after two prior beats, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong revenue growth is translating consistently to the bottom line — a single large miss after a streak of beats often signals an estimate revision cycle where analysts reset expectations downward. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the start of a delivery trend. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four trailing quarters were beats, including consecutive beats in the middle of the streak, and average surprise across all four periods is only modestly negative; one large miss does not necessarily define the trajectory. | ||
At $142.93 against a resistance target of $143.90, the stock has only 0.7% of headroom remaining with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.12 — the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative ratio — meaning the current price level offers no meaningful reward for incremental risk in a new position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes more than 5% above the current take-profit level of $143.90 for 2 consecutive weeks, confirming that the resistance has been broken and new upside has opened.
CounterStrong underlying growth and momentum can push price through technical resistance targets, particularly when the fundamental growth rate is as high as 49% — resistance levels are not hard ceilings in a strong fundamental environment.
Revenue growing at 49% year-over-year with best-in-class margins and peer-group-leading growth rank places this bank among the fastest-growing operators in its regional peer set — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, justifies the current forward P/E of 11.9 times and a PEG of 0.18.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth at this rate in a regional bank often reflects one-time acquisition-driven revenue rather than organic expansion; if consolidation synergies fade or loan growth normalizes, the top-line trajectory can decelerate sharply without warning.
A golden cross has formed, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a technically aligned setup where short-term and long-term trend indicators all confirm the same direction, reducing the probability of an imminent trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 2 consecutive months while momentum score remains above 6.0.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high and sitting within 1% of the resistance target, meaning the technically aligned setup has already largely played out and there is limited additional price appreciation implied by the current pattern.
The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by 18.54% after two prior beats, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong revenue growth is translating consistently to the bottom line — a single large miss after a streak of beats often signals an estimate revision cycle where analysts reset expectations downward.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the start of a delivery trend.
CounterTwo of the four trailing quarters were beats, including consecutive beats in the middle of the streak, and average surprise across all four periods is only modestly negative; one large miss does not necessarily define the trajectory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 49% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $94,041 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 135.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-4.2%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Catalyst at 4.0, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue growing at 49% year-over-year with best-in-class margins and peer-group-leading growth rank places this bank among the fastest-growing operators in its regional peer set — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, justifies the current forward P/E of 11.9 times and a PEG of 0.18.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2A golden cross has formed, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a technically aligned setup where short-term and long-term trend indicators all confirm the same direction, reducing the probability of an imminent trend reversal.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P3At $142.93 against a resistance target of $143.90, the stock has only 0.7% of headroom remaining with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.12 — the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative ratio — meaning the current price level offers no meaningful reward for incremental risk in a new position.
Trip ifPrice closes more than 5% above the current take-profit level of $143.90 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P4The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by 18.54% after two prior beats, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong revenue growth is translating consistently to the bottom line — a single large miss after a streak of beats often signals an estimate revision cycle where analysts reset expectations downward.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports.