Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
BCRX · Why this verdict
Why BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BioCryst has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 99% above estimates and trades at 13.3 times forward earnings with a 30% free cash flow margin, creating a setup with roughly 104% upside to analyst consensus; a 15% short interest and 116% implied volatility mean any earnings stumble would be met with outsized selling pressure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 20% over the next four quarters, confirming the business does not need to raise equity to fund operations. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow materially exceeding a net loss can be driven by favorable working-capital timing or deferred charges rather than durable operating efficiency; if those tailwinds normalize, cash generation could compress quickly. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more quarters with average surprises remaining above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 99% average surprise rate reflects a period when consensus models were dramatically under-calibrated; as analysts reset estimates higher, the structural cushion for outperformance narrows and even modest guidance tightening could flip the streak. | ||
A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E holds below 20 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates remain intact or rise, sustaining the value argument. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.10 likely reflects analyst models built on a narrow earnings ramp from a single product cycle; if revenue growth proves lumpy or decelerates, consensus estimates reset and the apparent cheapness evaporates. | ||
Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% of float over 12 months as sustained fundamental progress removes the bearish conviction underpinning the position. | →Stable |
| CounterA high short float in a beat-streak stock is a coiled spring: forced covering on continued beats can amplify upside, turning the short concentration from a risk into an accelerant for gains. | ||
Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 20% over the next four quarters, confirming the business does not need to raise equity to fund operations.
CounterFree cash flow materially exceeding a net loss can be driven by favorable working-capital timing or deferred charges rather than durable operating efficiency; if those tailwinds normalize, cash generation could compress quickly.
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more quarters with average surprises remaining above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 99% average surprise rate reflects a period when consensus models were dramatically under-calibrated; as analysts reset estimates higher, the structural cushion for outperformance narrows and even modest guidance tightening could flip the streak.
A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E holds below 20 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates remain intact or rise, sustaining the value argument.
CounterA PEG of 0.10 likely reflects analyst models built on a narrow earnings ramp from a single product cycle; if revenue growth proves lumpy or decelerates, consensus estimates reset and the apparent cheapness evaporates.
Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% of float over 12 months as sustained fundamental progress removes the bearish conviction underpinning the position.
CounterA high short float in a beat-streak stock is a coiled spring: forced covering on continued beats can amplify upside, turning the short concentration from a risk into an accelerant for gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 30%, FCF yield 11.2%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 113%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $696,535 (0.029% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 133%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:8.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.69
Upside
+85.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Momentum at 8.3, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.8, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 99% demonstrate that the business has been generating results well above analyst models, suggesting estimates have been persistently conservative.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2A forward P/E of 13.3 times and a PEG ratio of 0.10 place the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its growth profile, offering a low-cost entry point for the fundamental case.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 25x from the current 13.3 times as earnings estimates are revised downward.
- P3Despite recording a GAAP loss, the company generates a 30% free cash flow margin and an 11.5% FCF yield, confirming that its underlying economics are cash-generative and self-funding.
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 30% level.
- P4Short interest at 15% of float combined with implied volatility at 116% signals that a meaningful share of the market is positioned against the stock, creating severe binary downside risk if the earnings trajectory breaks.
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float from the current 15%.