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AVTXAvalo Therapeutics, Inc.Sell5.0·$18.84+8.96%
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Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (AVTX) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.84: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops IL-1ß-based treatments for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in the Unites States. Its lead product includes AVTX-009, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds to interleukin-1ß, which is in phase 2... Read more

$18.84+109.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#144 of 258 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-2.35%
Stop $17.52Target $39.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.3:1
Analyst target$45.25+140.2%12 analysts
$39.37our TP
$18.84price
$45.25mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.84: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.8%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.7
Mkt Cap$990M
EV/EBITDA-11.5
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-88.8%
Rev Growth
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV129%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.3
Cash-burning: FCF -39402% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.7
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
5.5
GatesINSIDER 0.57%=EXTREMEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 7.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.52Resistance $20.10

Price Targets

$18
$39
A.Upside+109.0%
A.R:R7.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.8%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap)
! Insider activity: 0.57%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVTX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.84: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.52. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.37 (+109.0% upside). Prior stop was $17.52. Stop-loss: $17.52.

What are the risks of investing in AVTX?

Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.8%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.21% of cap).

Is AVTX overvalued or undervalued?

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVTX?

19 analysts cover AVTX with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. do?Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops IL-1ß-based treatments for immune-mediated...

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops IL-1ß-based treatments for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in the Unites States. Its lead product includes AVTX-009, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds to interleukin-1ß, which is in phase 2 clinical trial to treat inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. and changed its name to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. in August 2021. Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

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