Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
AUGO · Why this verdict
Why Aura Minerals (AUGO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aura Minerals presents exceptional return on capital, wide moat characteristics, and roughly 40% upside to the analyst target — but four consecutive earnings misses and a materials cycle peak signal, where forward estimates appear built on a commodity-price surge, create meaningful downside risk if spot prices mean-revert.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The forward P/E of 4.9x falls well below the 12x cycle-peak threshold, and the ratio of forward-to-trailing P/E is 0.08x — a combination signaling that EPS may have surged on a commodity price spike, with forward estimates potentially built on prices that will not persist. Engine gate (failed) | Actual EPS over the next 4 quarters stays within 20% of current forward estimates, demonstrating the earnings base is durable and not cycle-dependent. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 4.9x already prices in significant mean-reversion; if commodity prices hold near current levels, the risk/reward of approximately 6.5-to-1 argues the cycle discount is excessive. | ||
The current price sits roughly 40% below the analyst consensus target of $92.55, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 6.5-to-1 — a wide asymmetry that provides meaningful margin of safety even if estimates are trimmed modestly. Price targets | Price advances at least 25% toward the analyst target over 12 months as the cycle-peak concern fades. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide asymmetry ratio in a commodity-linked company can reflect legitimate market skepticism about earnings durability rather than mispricing — the four consecutive misses suggest analysts have been too optimistic before. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 40%, converts earnings to free cash flow at roughly 462%, and carries a wide economic moat designation — a combination that points to durable competitive advantages and strong capital discipline. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 25% and the free cash flow to net income ratio stays above 200% for at least 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterIn the gold mining sector, high ROE and strong cash conversion can reflect elevated commodity prices rather than structural cost advantages — if spot prices retreat, both metrics could compress rapidly even without any operational missteps. | ||
All four reported quarters across the available history are misses, with an average negative surprise of roughly 61% — a pattern of deeply undershooting consensus that suggests either management consistently over-guides or the business lacks reliable near-term earnings visibility. Earnings | A positive EPS surprise in 2 consecutive quarters would signal that the earnings delivery pattern has genuinely improved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe miss streak spans an unusually long period — the oldest data point is from early 2023, more than three years before the most recent — meaning the base-rate miss record may partly reflect early-stage business volatility rather than an ongoing structural execution problem. | ||
Despite strong free cash flow metrics, the dividend has been flagged as a potential yield trap — a high yield with questionable safety — creating the risk that a dividend cut or suspension could trigger a repricing of the stock. Catalyst breakdown | The next 2 dividend payments are made in full and on schedule without any reduction in payout. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a free cash flow to net income ratio of 462%, the business generates substantial cash relative to earnings; the yield-trap concern may reflect a mismatch between accounting earnings and genuine cash generation rather than an impending cut. | ||
The forward P/E of 4.9x falls well below the 12x cycle-peak threshold, and the ratio of forward-to-trailing P/E is 0.08x — a combination signaling that EPS may have surged on a commodity price spike, with forward estimates potentially built on prices that will not persist.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Actual EPS over the next 4 quarters stays within 20% of current forward estimates, demonstrating the earnings base is durable and not cycle-dependent.
CounterA forward P/E of 4.9x already prices in significant mean-reversion; if commodity prices hold near current levels, the risk/reward of approximately 6.5-to-1 argues the cycle discount is excessive.
The current price sits roughly 40% below the analyst consensus target of $92.55, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 6.5-to-1 — a wide asymmetry that provides meaningful margin of safety even if estimates are trimmed modestly.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances at least 25% toward the analyst target over 12 months as the cycle-peak concern fades.
CounterA wide asymmetry ratio in a commodity-linked company can reflect legitimate market skepticism about earnings durability rather than mispricing — the four consecutive misses suggest analysts have been too optimistic before.
The business earns a return on equity of 40%, converts earnings to free cash flow at roughly 462%, and carries a wide economic moat designation — a combination that points to durable competitive advantages and strong capital discipline.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 25% and the free cash flow to net income ratio stays above 200% for at least 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterIn the gold mining sector, high ROE and strong cash conversion can reflect elevated commodity prices rather than structural cost advantages — if spot prices retreat, both metrics could compress rapidly even without any operational missteps.
All four reported quarters across the available history are misses, with an average negative surprise of roughly 61% — a pattern of deeply undershooting consensus that suggests either management consistently over-guides or the business lacks reliable near-term earnings visibility.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- A positive EPS surprise in 2 consecutive quarters would signal that the earnings delivery pattern has genuinely improved.
CounterThe miss streak spans an unusually long period — the oldest data point is from early 2023, more than three years before the most recent — meaning the base-rate miss record may partly reflect early-stage business volatility rather than an ongoing structural execution problem.
Despite strong free cash flow metrics, the dividend has been flagged as a potential yield trap — a high yield with questionable safety — creating the risk that a dividend cut or suspension could trigger a repricing of the stock.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The next 2 dividend payments are made in full and on schedule without any reduction in payout.
CounterWith a free cash flow to net income ratio of 462%, the business generates substantial cash relative to earnings; the yield-trap concern may reflect a mismatch between accounting earnings and genuine cash generation rather than an impending cut.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 40%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 462% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 136% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 79%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.8 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $21,779,213 (0.451% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.3x,ratio=0.08x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.69
Upside
+55.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 7.9 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 3.69 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.1, and Sentiment at 8.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.4, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business earns a return on equity of 40%, converts earnings to free cash flow at roughly 462%, and carries a wide economic moat designation — a combination that points to durable competitive advantages and strong capital discipline.
Trip ifROE falls below 15% or free cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The forward P/E of 4.9x falls well below the 12x cycle-peak threshold, and the ratio of forward-to-trailing P/E is 0.08x — a combination signaling that EPS may have surged on a commodity price spike, with forward estimates potentially built on prices that will not persist.
Trip ifActual EPS comes in more than 40% below consensus estimates for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3All four reported quarters across the available history are misses, with an average negative surprise of roughly 61% — a pattern of deeply undershooting consensus that suggests either management consistently over-guides or the business lacks reliable near-term earnings visibility.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4The current price sits roughly 40% below the analyst consensus target of $92.55, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 6.5-to-1 — a wide asymmetry that provides meaningful margin of safety even if estimates are trimmed modestly.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $50, eliminating more than half the current asymmetric upside.
- P5Despite strong free cash flow metrics, the dividend has been flagged as a potential yield trap — a high yield with questionable safety — creating the risk that a dividend cut or suspension could trigger a repricing of the stock.
Trip ifDividend per share is not reduced below the current payout level in any of the next 4 consecutive quarters.